CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 9:42 PM EDT499
FXUS61 KCLE 180142
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9:42 PM EDT Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. Decreased Friday morning low temperatures
slightly along and very near the Lake Erie shore given latest
trends in obs and expectation of the ongoing land breeze to
persist through mid-morning and be associated with cold air
drainage through daybreak Friday. Given significant radiational
cooling through daybreak, also expect localized river valley
steam fog development. Once diurnal warming begins shortly after
daybreak, fog is expected to dissipate via diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer by mid-morning. The sensible
weather forecast was updated accordingly. Please see discussion
below for further details.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to promote
fair weather through daybreak Saturday. A cool air mass remains
over the region and will allow for temperatures to cool
significantly through daybreak Friday morning courtesy of clear
sky, weak or calm surface winds, and low humidity at/near the
surface. Cold air drainage into the valleys of northern OH and
NW PA will complement the efficient radiational cooling.
Widespread lows in the upper 20's to mid 30's are expected
around daybreak Friday. However, warmer lows ranging from the
upper 30's to upper 40's are expected along and within about one
mile or so of Lake Erie. Widespread frost formation is expected,
even fairly close to the Lake Erie shore. A Frost Advisory and
Freeze Warning are in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for
areas still considered to be in the growing season.
The center of the surface ridge moves from the Upper OH Valley
to central NY on Friday through Friday night. Development of
weak southeasterly to southerly surface flow and low-level WAA,
respectively, will contribute to slight moderation of temperatures.
High temperatures should reach the 60's across the area Friday
afternoon. Overnight lows Friday night are expected to be
slightly warmer (30's inland from Lake Erie; mainly upper 30's
to lower 40's along and near the lake). Therefore frost
formation early Saturday morning is expected to be slightly less
widespread through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. Expect dry weather with mainly clear skies, light winds,
and gradually recovering temperatures in modest south-southwest
return flow behind the high pressure. Highs will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s on Saturday and will generally range from near 70 to
the mid 70s Sunday. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid to
upper 30s in colder spots in eastern OH and PA to the low to mid 40s
near the lake and on hilltops where winds will stay up a bit. Add
roughly 5 degrees to the lows Sunday night, mainly in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging surface and aloft will be the story through Tuesday, leading
to mild and dry weather. A weak shortwave and cold front will cross
through Tuesday night. This will be followed by a somewhat more
potent shortwave and associated cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday. Expect minimal rain shower chances and just a slight
airmass change with the first front Tuesday night. Have greater
potential for showers (but overall light QPF/low impact) Wednesday
night into Thursday, with a more noticeable cooldown expected behind
the second front to end next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Clear sky and mainly VFR expected through 00/Sat as a surface
ridge impacts our region and the core of the ridge moves from
near the Mid OH Valley toward central NY. Regional surface winds
trend light and variable. However, a land breeze is expected
over and within several miles of Lake Erie from ~02Z to
~14:30Z/Fri, including at KCLE and KERI. Localized river valley
steam fog and associated MVFR to LIFR are expected to form
around daybreak Fri and then dissipate via diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer by ~14Z/Fri. Fog is not expected to
impact any of the TAF sites.
Outlook...VFR expected through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will be in control through Tuesday, leading to
generally southwest flow over the lake with 10 knot or less winds
and 2 foot or less waves. A weak frontal passage Tuesday night will
cause a brief wind shift to the west, but with speeds likely staying
under 15 knots. A stronger front will cross Wednesday night,
ushering in somewhat stronger west to northwest winds behind it for
the end of next week. No marine headlines are expected for the next
several days, with the next opportunity later next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ011-012-021-
032-089.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ013-014-022-
023-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 9:42 PM EDT---------------
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