BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:22 PM EDT138
FXUS61 KBOX 111722
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
122 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend continues into Saturday as high pressure builds
south of New England, but becoming blustery on tomorrow as a
front crosses the region. A strong fall frontal system then
affects Southern New England for Sunday and into Monday, which
will bring a couple periods of steadier rains and cooler than
normal temperatures. Drying out by Tuesday. Fall-like blustery
conditions and below normal temperatures are favored for Tuesday
and Wednesday, and highs could be some 10 degrees colder than
normal. Temperatures slowly warm towards normal by the end of
the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging continues to provide a quiet and mild day today
under 925 mb temps around 10C. As we head into the overnight hours
the ridge is suppressed by a trough of low pressure passing to our
north, increasing the mid/high clouds overhead. These clouds
together with an increasingly breezy boundary layer overnight will
keep low temperatures quite a bit warmer than the rest of the week,
in the upper 40s and low 50s. These breezy conditions will also make
for some rougher seas on the outer waters.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Early Saturday a dry cold front drops through ushering an even drier
airmass with PWATs down to 0.2 inches and dewpoints in the low 30s.
A well mixed boundary layer will mix down a moderate low level jet.
This results in gusts of 15-25 mph over land and 25-35 mph over the
waters, especially early. The jet moves off through the day so the
strongest gusts will be in the morning. Temperatures are slow to
come down behind the front so highs will be relatively mild, in the
upper 60s/low 70s. Lows overnight, however, will be quite a bit
colder, in the 30s and low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* A frontal system brings the next chance at rainfall bringing
periods of rain Sunday into Monday.
* Cooler airmass settles over the region through Thursday bringing
below normal temperatures across southern New England.
Details:
Saturday Night through Monday:
Limited cloud cover earlier Saturday night should lead to optimal
cooling. Temperatures likely drop into the mid/upper 30s for the
interior and 40s closer to the coast. Clouds increase from west to
east early Sunday morning ahead of the next system.
There is a good consensus among model guidance that a deep trough
moves across the Great Lakes region pushing eastward across the
northeast U.S. Sunday into Monday. This will bring our next chance
at rainfall for southern New England. Portions of the details stay
blurry with more uncertainty being expressed in the track of the low
and front placement. The track itself will have influence on rain
totals and rain probabilities. What we do know is that in the Sunday
through Monday timeframe, there are increasing chances for areas to
receive periods of rain. How the system tracks could have some
influence on timing as well. A round of rain is possible as early as
early Sunday morning with additional rounds moving through Sunday
afternoon, overnight, and into Monday.
Plenty of moisture available ahead of this upper trough/system
with precipitable water values 120-160% of normal. This will
more likely support periods of moderate rain with widespread
heavy rainfall unlikely. In terms of QPF, ensemble 50th
percentile shows a range from 0.20-0.65" by Mon PM. The lower
end of the range was highlighted by the GEFS which had a more
north track. The 00z ECMWF ens trended a bit wetter than
previous runs, displaying 1-1.2" for a high end (low prob)
event. Otherwise other runs stay 1" or less. Temperatures Sunday
will also be uncertain as well with dependence on the position
of the warm front. Given the unsettled pattern, it is more
likely to see highs in the 50s with some low-mid 60s toward the
south coast and on the Cape. Conditions gradually dry out Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.
Tuesday through Thursday:
A deep trough sliding across the northeast will keep anomalously
cooler air over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. During this time
frame, expect temperatures below normal in the 50s with chillier
nights dropping into the 30s. There isn't a strong signal for
precipitation during this period, but can't rule out a few showers
each day. Breezy W/NW winds will also accompany this cool late fall-
like airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
This afternoon: High confidence.
VFR. W wind 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kts(slightly higher for
islands near Cape).
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. WSW-SW wind 5-15 kt, increasing gusts to 20-25 kt for the
Cape/Islands. Areas of LLWS developing in the interior after
midnight associated with 40+ kt westerly low level jet,
diminishing in the late afternoon.
Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt, gradually diminishing in the
afternoon.
Saturday night: High confidence.
VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
This afternoon through Saturday night...High confidence.
W winds gust to 20 kt this afternoon, shifting. SW wind gusts
increase tonight ahead of a cold front, with gusts 25-30 kt
developing. Winds shift to NW on Sat with gusty winds continuing
but gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Seas will
increase to 5-7 ft on outer waters during the day Saturday. SCA
for all waters tonight into Sat. Overnight winds will be 5-10 kt
out of the NW with diminishing seas.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Columbus Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Mensch
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...BW/Mensch
MARINE...BW/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:22 PM EDT----------------
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