PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 6:36 PM CDT193
FXUS63 KPAH 122336
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The extended period of dry weather this month continues for
another week.
- After a warm day with highs in the 80s today, a dry cold
frontal passage moves through Sunday.
- Much cooler temperatures are expected next week, with the
potential for some frost Tuesday night into early Wednesday
and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Areas of high clouds are moving through the Quad State today.
Southwesterly winds around 10 mph with the occasional gust of
15-20 mph are bringing in warm air as highs rise to the low to
mid 80s today. Limited decoupling tonight will keep lows warmer
than recent nights, remaining in the low to mid 60s.
A cold frontal passage arrives Sunday connected to a system in
the Great Lakes. Models agree on precipitation staying well to
the northeast with dry conditions for the Quad State, which as
of now has seen 0 rain at all 5 primary climate sites this
month. Cooling mid to late afternoon is expected following the
front, with significantly colder and drier air flowing into the
Quad State from Canada.
On the synoptic scale, troughing remains in the eastern half of
the U.S. through mid-week. A secondary surge of cold air
Tuesday will bring our coldest air of the fall. Lows in the
mid-30s are possible across the Quad State early Wednesday
morning with the potential for frost development. A few isolated
spots could get down to freezing. A large area of high pressure
shifts overhead Wednesday with radiational cooling and clear
skies/calm winds contributing more to maintaining well below
normal temperatures as cold air advection drops off. Areas of
frost will again be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi,
early Thursday morning.
Late week, high pressure shifts further east and southerly flow
returns next weekend with temperatures trending warmer. Models
depict a system in southern Canada and a Four Corners system
that may become a cutoff low. There's significant disparity as
to whether and when this may finally lead to rainfall just
beyond day 7.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
VFR expected tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move through
on Sunday with a wind shift from southwest to northeast behind
the front. LLWS is still possible overnight into early morning
associated with stronger flow aloft. Best chances are across
northern terminals. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds expected
through the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 6:36 PM CDT---------------
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