IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 5:53 AM EDT398
FXUS63 KIWX 110953
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
553 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy and warm today with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.
* An elevated risk of field/brush fires is possible this
afternoon due to the combination of warm and breezy
conditions.
* Chance of rain returns for the second half of the weekend
before turning much colder early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Leading low amplitude nrn stream disturbance over wrn SK this
morning will amplify south of Hudson Bay by evening as associated
weak cold front presses swd into retreating OH valley sfc ridge and
washes out. Overtly dry airmass in place precludes any chance for
much needed rain. Otherwise quite warm as good mixing propels temps
into the upper 70s east and low 80s west.
More vigorous trailing shortwave disturbance digs sharply sewd
through the wrn lakes Sat night. Leftover frontal zone will
resharpen in response to substantial height falls aloft as upper jet
digs and decent sfc wave develops upstream across IL. Where exactly
this sets up remains a bit uncertain given fair amount of spread in
00Z based guidance but surely this is the best setup for much needed
rain seen in many weeks, especially north half where better
consensus signals exist. Sufficient low level theta-e surge into at
least the elevated portion of the frontal slope holds promise for
thunder as well Sat night and perhaps late Sat aftn pending timing
of arrival. Fairly fast ewd progression of sfc low and dry
intrusion aloft looks to squelch any follow on rain chances
during the day Sun.
Rapidly deepening upper low follows Sun night-Mon
although depth/track of this feature in flux with more probable mid
level forced deformation remaining north through srn/cntrl MI Sun
night followed by a substantial cold advection burst/sharp lake
aggregate thermal trough Mon with lake effect rains showers likely
mainly northwest but again depth/srn extent of this sys influence
uncertain.
Thereafter strong ridging builds south with a hard frost likely
inland Tue and Wed mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Few weather concerns to speak of for the critical TAF period.
High pressure will remain in place for most of the day before
yielding to a low moving across Ontario and into Quebec. There
will be a diurnal increase in wind and some high clouds.
Tonight, a weak cold front will approach resulting in a wind
shift to the north-northeast. Cloud bases will be rather high
thanks to an abundance of dry air. This also prevents any -SHRA.
This front attempts to sink over KFWA near 12z Saturday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 5:53 AM EDT---------------
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