BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 1:29 AM EDT968
FXUS61 KBOX 080529
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
129 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough and cold pool aloft for the rest of the
work week will support fall-like weather as morning lows drop
into the 30s and 40s, and afternoon highs crest in the 50s and
60s. No significant precipitation is expected from Tuesday
through early Saturday, though rain chances increase to close
out the holiday weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1025 PM update...
Line of scattered showers along the cold front moving across the
outer Cape and will move offshore around midnight. Post-frontal
airmass overnight with NW flow and good drying as PWATs drop
below 0.5". Clearing overnight across SE New Eng with mainly
clear skies elsewhere. Lows will range through the 40s, with
low-mid 50s outer Cape/Islands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday dry quasi-zonal flow moves overhead as a broad upper
trough sits over Quebec. This gives a largely dry column, but
with a -18C 500 mb cold pool and cyclonic flow aloft diurnal
clouds will blossom in the afternoon given a layer of moisture
at 850mb. Otherwise sunny and dry conditions persist on Tuesday
with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s, right
around normal for early October. Overnight we'll start to see a
trend of cooler nighttime temperatures as that cold pool dips
south. Much of the interior high elevations of the Berkshires
and Worcester hills may dip into the low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* First prolonged period of true fall weather develops mid week
and persists into early Friday
* Dry weather prevails until perhaps very late next weekend and
into the holiday.
Generally expecting a high pressure to extend from central
Canada into the OH River Valley mid week, which then becomes a
high pressure centered over the central Appalachians by late
this week. Thus, dry weather with below normal temperatures
expected for the rest of this work week. This high pressure will
also keep Hurricane Milton, and its remnants, well to our
south.
Will have to monitor for frost headlines during the mid week.
The synoptic pattern is not ideal for frost formation, as it
currently appears like there will just enough wind to keep the
boundary layer mixed. It would only take a slight reduction in
temperature or wind speed where frost could become more of a
concern. Stayed tuned to later forecasts.
The next chance for showers does not look to be until some time
early next week as a cold front approaches from the west. The
timing is still in question, which is not unusual for being
nearly 7 days in the future. Thinking temperatures should be
briefly trending above normal for Saturday ahead of a cold
front, then back to cooler weather into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z...
MVFR-IFR cigs Cape/Islands will scatter out and improve to VFR
06-08z. Otherwise VFR, except patchy valley fog through 08z. NW
wind 5-10 kt
Today through Wednesday...High Confidence.
VFR. SCT-BKN diurnal CU developing this afternoon and again Wed
afternoon, especially interior. Low risk for a few showers
Cape/Islands overnight tonight but VFR cigs. NW wind 10-15 kt
today, becoming light to calm tonight, then W 10-15 kt Wed.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday night...High Confidence.
Very distant tropical systems in the Atlantic will result in
easterly swell of 3 to 6 feet into Tuesday across the outer
waters, where small craft headlines are posted. Small Craft
Advisories continue into Tuesday for a period of 5-7 foot seas,
diminishing Tuesday night.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254-
255.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ251-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/KJC
MARINE...Belk/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 1:29 AM EDT----------------
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