LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 8:28 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...059
FXUS64 KLIX 080128
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
828 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Other than the usual massaging of hourly temperature/dew point
trends, no updates planned this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
A quick synoptic analysis shows an upper level trough draped across
the Great Lakes and extreme northeastern US, Hurricane Milton in the
Bay of Campeche and broad ridge across the remainder of the US. The
CWA falls along the eastern periphery of the ridge, hence the above
normal temps in place and clear skies. The trough has been and will
continue to dig farther southeast through Tuesday. This will drive
a west to east oriented cold front currently located over southern
Oklahoma and central Arkansas south this evening. Models show this
boundary reaching the northern edge of our CWA around midnight and
washing out as it reaches the open Gulf. The good news is this
boundary will bring some much drier air with post-frontal dewpoints
about 15 degrees lower than they are today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Gradual eastward shift of the trough and ridge building in it's wake
means several days of quiet weather locally. Although temps may not
be that much cooler than they are today, and even above climo for
highs, the continued lower dewpoints will lend to very pleasant
feeling conditions. No appreciable changes for the remainder of the
extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Only issue
may be overnight wind speeds at KNEW, which could see 15-20 knot
sustained winds off the lake, with a few gusts in excess of 20
knots. Those winds should relax somewhat by mid-morning Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Tight local pressure gradient is being created by Hurricane Milton
and surface ridge to the north which has been supporting ~20kts
winds in the coastal waters and minor coastal flooding on some
eastern facing shores. A weak cold front will push across the tidal
lakes tonight but wash out as it moves offshore. As it does so,
expect to see 15-20 kt winds over the Lakes. Thus, have expanded the
Exercise Caution Headline westward. Otherwise, borderline SCY/SCS
conditions will continue with gradual fading as Milton tracks east
across FL into the open Atlantic Ocean. Swells from the storm will
increase offshore zone wave heights above what typically is expected
with current forecast winds. So may need to extend the SCY after a
lull on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 63 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 63 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 69 84 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 64 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 64 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ069-070-076-
078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...ME
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 8:28 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
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