The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 22, 12:53z for portions of IWX135
WUUS01 KWNS 221254
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024
VALID TIME 221300Z - 231200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 40498021 39958191 40028285 40818253 41578184 42587914
42417884 41817861 41187888 40498021
0.02 29939853 29789967 29790033 30050080 30660115 31260120
32230097 32960046 33939925 38018803 36988740 36498747
35158832 34298928 31749258 30959424 30479573 29939853
0.05 30559949 30710005 31150048 31760046 32440010 33089918
35119374 35179290 34989226 34509186 33829194 33009275
32559346 31339567 30799730 30559949
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 45257421 44137395 43287409 42117447 41157506 40007648
34478903 31799260 30339668 29769966 28180037 99999999
29580174 32230118 32970070 34669862 36229747 39158994
40068580 40798402 41928266
0.15 30090020 30100082 30550119 31290122 32150103 32900054
33909939 35449633 36959169 37718953 38228797 37888695
37288692 36458751 32539241 31869368 30379806 30090020
0.30 30879833 30549946 30730004 31140046 31780044 32400008
33099913 35149370 35189289 34989227 34479187 33849202
33329274 32739387 30879833
SIGN 31310077 31850072 32500042 33209977 34179811 35239552
35819343 35919223 35759163 35319124 34739128 34039169
33299274 32719391 31559681 30889838 30749948 30880046
31310077
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 45227322 43547297 41987348 40517449 39667599 38637809
36968197 36008554 34688809 33258922 31339137 30289560
29789966 28120041 99999999 29490175 32230119 32960071
34669862 36249746 39129002 40058581 40798403 41928269
0.15 45007544 43907507 42117552 41177596 40477673 39827784
38078249 35968688 31739263 30959430 30499570 30039955
30100087 30560117 31240120 32200102 32870054 33909936
35509620 36979166 38208797 39358525 40508309 41278204
42508106
0.30 30559947 30710007 31150047 31810047 32420010 33029925
35139370 35199294 35009229 34509188 33819194 33079268
32549344 31349568 30809735 30559947
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
ENH 30809733 30549949 30720007 31130048 31790047 32410010
33059919 35119374 35199291 34999228 34509186 33799196
33069270 32569343 31339567 30809733
SLGT 44997547 43877507 42097553 41157593 40497675 39857784
38118241 35848709 31759261 30949430 30489572 30039960
30110085 30540118 31270123 32190102 32910055 33899938
35439636 36959166 38208801 39318536 40508310 41238210
42498107
MRGL 29540174 30960147 32220118 32960072 34679863 36229749
39139001 40068581 40788403 41928266 99999999 45227322
43557297 41997347 40497448 39457630 38627808 36948200
35998555 34698810 33248925 31349136 30289560 29779967
28160039
TSTM 49349552 47489266 46789005 46608809 45618663 44648720
43618842 42919009 42199145 41129213 40629293 40679465
41279696 42259746 43049584 43419416 44359386 44949561
45179767 45639965 45490104 44640143 43910210 41610254
39960177 37590203 36650265 36120479 36790655 37930779
39290713 39950593 40950579 41560682 41120872 41440944
42080896 42700913 42571017 41631139 41651515 42121656
42781710 43331690 43721757 43561849 43681994 45462091
46342062 46741958 46881787 46401622 46031549 47021402
47441405 48041489 49241777 99999999 29550236 30960170
32450128 34000066 36189865 37939650 38549389 39219212
39448964 40208608 40908420 42088278 99999999 45186647
44046842 42767120 42557208 42037267 41067348 39797496
38407710 37357913 36158006 35848260 35398454 35018669
34498794 32448909 30869081 30149452 29899796 29589966
28779994 27399979 99999999 26638286 28188265 28118189
27157952
&&
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
TPL 15 E JCT 25 NW JCT 15 S SJT 30 N SJT 25 W ABI 50 NNE ABI 40 WSW
RUE 10 ESE RUE 20 N LIT 25 N PBF 15 NW LLQ 15 SSE ELD 25 ENE SHV 45
NNW UTS 25 SSE TPL.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
MSS 50 E ART 25 ESE BGM 15 SW AVP 20 NNE CXY 10 NNW HGR 20 SSE HTS
30 SW BNA 30 E IER 35 SE LFK 25 SW UTS 35 SSE JCT 50 N DRT 70 SW SJT
45 W SJT 30 E BGS 60 NW ABI 50 W SPS 35 SE CQB 20 NE UNO 30 WNW EVV
50 WNW LUK 35 NNW CMH 20 SW CLE 55 WNW ERI.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
6R6 65 WSW SJT 20 E BGS 70 NE BGS 15 W FSI 25 ESE END 15 N ALN 25
WSW MIE 25 SW FDY 40 ESE DTW ...CONT... 50 N BTV RUT 30 SSW PSF 20
SW EWR 25 NE BWI 40 NNE CHO 40 NE TRI 25 W CSV 25 W MSL 50 ESE GWO
20 S HEZ 30 SSW UTS 40 NW HDO 70 NW LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW RRT 10 NE HIB
20 NNE IWD 25 W MQT 25 ESE ESC 45 NE MTW 25 SSE OSH 20 SSE LNR 25
NNE CID 15 E OTM 40 NNW IRK 40 W LWD 25 ESE OLU 20 N OFK 35 WSW SPW
20 SE FRM 10 NNE MKT 35 NW RWF 30 NW ATY 40 E MBG 30 W MBG 40 NNE
PHP 25 WSW PHP 35 SSE AIA 40 SSW IML 40 ENE SPD 30 ENE CAO 40 NNE
LVS 60 NNE 4SL 40 S MTJ 15 WNW ASE 55 ENE EGE 25 SSW LAR 25 SE RWL
40 SSE RKS 20 WSW RKS 35 N RKS 20 WSW LND BPI 30 NW EVW 55 ESE OWY
25 WNW OWY 40 ENE REO 40 WSW BOI 70 W BOI 25 E BNO 50 W BNO 15 SE
DLS 15 S YKM 40 S EPH 35 WNW PUW 35 WNW P69 10 SSE P69 10 NNE MSO 35
N MSO 35 WSW GPI 95 NE OMK ...CONT... 35 SSW 6R6 70 NNE 6R6 20 NE
BGS 35 SW CDS 40 S AVK 30 SSW EMP 20 WSW SZL 30 N COU 30 S SPI 35
NNE IND 30 WSW FDY 30 ESE DTW ...CONT... 30 NE EPM 30 S BHB 30 NNW
BOS 20 NNW ORH BDL 20 WSW BDR 15 ESE PHL 30 S DCA LYH 10 WNW GSO 15
ESE HSS 45 SW TYS 25 NNE HSV 25 SW MSL 20 WNW MEI 30 SW MCB 35 WNW
BPT 10 NNE BAZ 35 WNW HDO 50 WNW COT 20 WSW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW
SRQ 20 N PIE 45 SW ORL 50 NE PBI.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 22, 12:53z for portions of IWX---------------
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