NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 1:00 AM AST524
WTNT43 KNHC 072034
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024
Leslie's convective organization continues to become a little less
organized this afternoon, although deep convection has persisted
over the center with cloud tops near -80C. A recent AMSR2 microwave
pass shows that the inner core has deteriorated from imagery earlier
today. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 60 to 75
kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set to 70 kt.
The system is moving northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The hurricane is
rounding the edge of a subtropical ridge over the central/east
Atlantic. The system should continue to move northwestward with a
gradual turn more north-northwestward then northward by the end of
the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is slightly faster than
the previous forecast and was adjusted slightly to the right towards
the latest consensus aids.
Leslie will remain in a marginal environment for the next day or
two, with warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind
shear. However, the system is entering a much drier air mass. Beyond
48 h, shear will also increase as the mid-levels will continue to be
dry. Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with gradual
then steady weakening throughout the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the
model consensus. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that by
day 4, the shear and drier air will cause Leslie to lose convection
and the system is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at
that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 17.4N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.2N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.6N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.2N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 26.3N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 30.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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