PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:19 PM CDT305
FXUS63 KPAH 071819
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
119 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and pleasant weather conditions will continue across the
region this week.
- Temperatures will be more seasonable through the latter half
of the week, followed by slightly above normal temperatures
this weekend.
- Rain chances remain very low at best early next week as a cold
front approaches the region, potentially bringing an even
cooler airmass.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Sfc high pressure will build into the FA from the Great Lakes
through the week providing abundant sunshine and ample dry
conditions. As a 500 mb trough ejects out of Canada across the NE
CONUS, the flow aloft will prevail out of the NW. In the wake of
more seasonable temps for the latter half of the week, maxTs today
and Tuesday will only range from the low to mid 70s with minTs in
the low to mid 40s. In fact, would not be surprised to see an
isolated upper 30 near KMVN tonight given radiational cooling and
dry air advection. By Wednesday, maxTs will range from the mid 70s
to near 80 degrees with minTs falling into the mid 40s to near 50
degrees.
Height rises aloft will eventually lead to warmer conditions over
the weekend with maxTs progged in the low 80s along with minTs in
the 50s. The warm up will not last for long as model guidance shows
a cold front transversing SE towards the FA the end of the weekend
into early next week. Model ensembles only support about a 10-30%
probability of measurable QPF at best, as the better forcing
associated with another 500 mb trough remains to the north. It is
worth noting 850 mb temps do cool to around 5C, favoring the
possibility some locations could see maxTs only in the 60s and minTs
in the 30s next week. The probability by the NBM ranges from 40-60%
from south to north. However, model ensembles show quite a large
spread due to uncertainty in the depth of the trough.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
The TAFs will remain VFR through the period as sfc high pressure
builds over the region. Skies will be clear with N-NE winds
this afternoon between 5-10 kts. Light N winds tonight turn NE
around 5 kts tomorrow morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:19 PM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
