BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 6:26 AM EDT940
FXUS61 KBOX 051026
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
626 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An isolated shower early this morning gives way to plenty of sunshine
with very pleasant temperatures later this morning and afternoon.
A cold front moves through Southern New England late Sunday night
into Monday, bringing a period of rain showers. This
cold front will usher in a cooler, fall-like weather
pattern for the rest of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM Update...
* An isolated spot shower or two early this morning followed by
plenty of sunshine and high temps in the lower to middle 70s
A shortwave/weak cold front was crossing the region early this
morning. There is not much deep layer moisture/forcing with this
weak front...so radar just indicated a brief isolated shower or
two during the early this morning. Most locations will not see
measurable rainfall. There was also some patchy fog mainly
towards the southeast New England coast...but this will burn off
fairly quickly in the next couple of hours.
Rapid clearing is expected behind the front by lunchtime which will
set us up for a beautiful mid-fall afternoon. Abundant sunshine will
aid in deep mixing, with 925mb temps between 8-10C, as temperatures
warm again into the lower to middle 70s; with perhaps a few
upper 70s in the southern Connecticut River Valley. Also
anticipating that winds will shift dramatically from the SSW to
the NW and eventually north this afternoon and evening, which
will allow a much drier airmass to trickle into SNE this
afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...
With dry airmass in place, light northerly flow, and clear skies,
tonight looks to be a textbook radiator. Dewpoints in the 40s will
act as a lower bound to temps, and with strong radiation, it is
quite likely that dews fall into the upper 30s across pockets of
interior MA. Thus, opted to populate the overnight low temps with
CONSMOS guidance, with the expectations that a few localities in the
terrain of western MA dip below 40F. Urban heat islands will likely
be the saving grace for Boston, which looks to remain in the 50s
overnight.
Sunday...
Pleasant and tranquil conditions will extend into Sunday morning. A
few different mechanisms will increase cloud cover on Sunday, the
first being developing onshore flow across eastern MA and the second
being another approaching shortwave from the west. Thus, expect more
clouds on Sunday compared to Saturday with some mid to low clouds
possible for the immediate eastern MA coastline after ~16Z. As with
many days over the last week, some isolated sprinkles may possibly
accompany these lower ceilings, but are not expected to pose much of
a threat to outdoor activities. By late Sunday afternoon and early
evening, high clouds will develop from west to east, though any
precipitation associated with the approaching front will hold off
until well after 00Z.
Temps will be seasonable to a few degrees above normal for likely
the last time in the next several days, warming into the mid 60s to
perhaps 70; warmest again in the CT River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points...
* Showers late Sun night into Mon
* Mainly dry but cool/fall-like temps Tue through Fri
* Some frost possible at times next week away from the urban centers
Details...
Sunday night and Monday...
An approaching shortwave/cold front will increase the forcing for
ascent late Sun night into Mon. A modest southerly LLJ of 25 to 30
knots at 925 mb with Pwats nearing 1.25 inches will result in a
enough forcing/moisture for a period of widespread showers late Sun
night into Mon. Guidance shows that much of the region may pickup
between 0.25 and 0.75 inches rain. We will have to see how this pans
out...but we could use the rain. We also can not rule out an
embedded isolated t-storm or two with some marginal instability. The
clouds and showers will probably hold high temps in the 60s...but
may see a few areas near 70 in the CT River Valley.
Tuesday through Friday...
Amplifying closed upper level low across Quebec will allow a deep
northeast trough to develop. The result will be our first real taste
of cool fall-like weather. 850T will generally range from
-2C to +2C...so high temps will generally range from the upper 50s
in the high terrain to the lower to middle 60s elsewhere much of
next week. Temps may even be a few degrees cooler than that on Thu
with a reinforcing shot of cool air. It will also be a bit breezy
during the daylight hours...so definitely a fall-like feel.
Overnight low temps should bottom out well down into the 30s a few
of the nights in the outlying locations...where some frost is
possible. Even the Urban Heat Islands of Boston and Providence
should see overnight lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Generally dry weather is expected...but given shortwave energy and
cold pool aloft expect a lot of strato-cu during the afternoons.
There may be a brief spot shower or two...but for all intensive
purposes it will mainly be dry.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence.
Early morning patchy ground fog towards the southeast New
England coast will burn off quickly by mid-morning.
Otherwise...VFR with nothing more than a brief spot shower
early this morning. Winds shift to the NW around
10 kts this morning and then N by afternoon...except NE along
the coast.
Tonight...
VFR outside any very localized patchy ground fog late. N winds
generally less than 10 knots.
Sunday...
VFR. Winds shift from the N/NE to the SE first across the
interior around 17Z and eventually across coastal terminals by
22z; except outer Cape terminals. Some MVFR possible for the
outer Cape with lingering onshore flow Sunday afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. A cold front will shift winds to the NW/N around 10 knots
this morning which probably will shift more to the NE during the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF... High Confidence in TAF.
VFR. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Saturday...High Confidence
Scattered showers possible early Saturday morning into Saturday
mid-day, though showers may linger across the eastern outer
waters into Saturday evening. Winds shift behind passing front
to the NW Saturday morning; winds less than 25 kts. Waves 2-4
ft.
Saturday Night...High Confidence
Winds 10-20 kts with higher winds confined to the outer waters.
Seas grow to 5-6ft overnight tonight, prompting the issuance of
a SCA from 06Z and beyond.
Sunday... High Confidence
Winds less than 25kt but seas across the outer waters continue
to range from 4-6ft. SCA continues for the outer waters through
the day Sunday, and beyond.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...KS/Frank
MARINE...KS/Frank
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 6:26 AM EDT----------------
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