JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 4:00 AM EDT206
FXUS63 KJKL 030800
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog for many locations this morning.
- Weak disturbances bring a small chance for rainfall to far
southeastern Kentucky tonight and Friday.
- A passing cold front brings another chance of showers to the
area on Sunday night.
- More fall-like temperatures next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2024
A bank of fog/low stratus over southeastern Kentucky late last
evening has spread north of I-64 and west of I-75 early this
morning, bringing locally dense fog in addition to any patchy dense
fog that formed along mainstem rivers prior to the arrival of the
stratus/fog bank. KYTC I-64 webcam Morehead showed rapid reduction
in visibility to approximately 1/4 mile or less just after 3 AM,
warranting expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory to include our
remaining Bluegrass counties. Temperatures range from the upper
40s in the coolest low-lying areas near and north of I-64 where
clear skies have persisted most of the night so far up to the
lower/middle 60s in the upper reaches of the Kentucky and
Cumberland River valleys where low stratus has minimized radiative
cooling so far. The latest analysis shows weak surface high
pressure centered over western Pennsylvania while broad 500H
ridging is in place over the Commonwealth. Upper level troughing
is found upstream over Central Canada and the Northern Plains
while a preceding surface cold front extends from a deep low over
the Hudson Bay southward across Lake Superior and then
southwestward into Nebraska.
Southerly return flow will develop today on the back side of the
surface high and push PWATs back to between 1.0 and 1.3 inches by
late this evening, highest near the Virginia border. Hi-res guidance
suggests that as the upper level high retreats southward in advance
of the upstream upper level trough/cold front one or more
disturbances will traverse the Central/Southern Appalachians
increasing cloud cover and even sparking spotty shallow convection
adjacent to the Virginia Kentucky border tonight and deeper
convection on Friday. By the end of the short-term period, the
cold front should be near the I-64 corridor but the better upper
level support will stay well to our north as the passing upper
level trough only glances the Ohio Valley. As a result, the
frontal passage will be dry for most locations, noted by little
more than a northerly wind shift.
In sensible terms, look for fog and low stratus across most of
eastern Kentucky this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for
all of eastern Kentucky until 10 AM EDT as many locations will
experience dense fog (visibilities of one quarter mile or less)
at times through the mid-morning. The fog and low stratus should
gradually lift and dissipate during the late morning and midday
hours. Mostly sunny skies should then boost temperatures into the
mid to upper 70s north of the Mountain Parkway and up into the
lower 80s in valleys further south. Cloud cover returns tonight,
especially over southeastern counties adjacent to Virginia where
there is a small chance (10-30 PoP) of a rain shower. Radiative fog
formation is likely in many of the river valleys, though the
cloud coverage should keep density and coverage in check. Look for
lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest near the
Tennessee and Virginia borders. Mostly to partly sunny skies are
expected for Friday with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
80s for most locations. There will still be a renewed threat for
rainfall (20-30 PoP) mainly along and southeast of the KY-80/Hal
Rogers Parkway corridor. Some of the guidance suggests sufficiently
steep lapse rates aloft for a few thunderstorms with this activity,
highest chances again adjacent to the Virginia border.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2024
High pressure will be the name of the game in the extended. The
first ridge will begin building our way from the west, as a trough
of low pressure aloft moves through New England and into the
Atlantic Ocean Friday night and Saturday. The ridge will expand
northward once the trough has moved far enough away, and will
provide eastern Kentucky with warm and dry weather over the
upcoming weekend. Our only chance for rain in the extended period
will be during a brief period Sunday evening, as a trough of low
pressure aloft moves quickly through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
and drags a cold front through the region. Scattered rain showers
are expected Sunday evening, but they should be out of the area
by around 6Z that night. After that, another ridge of Canadian
high pressure will swoop into the region on the heels of the
departed trough. This ridge will introduce a much cooler air mass
to the region, which will lead to a major cool down for our area.
Fall-like temperatures prevail during the first half of next
week, as cooler air invades from the north and northwest. After a
weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, we will see a
major shift during the upcoming work week, with highs forecast to
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s around the area. It appears
we will also see a few nights in a row with lows in the low to mid
40s, which will be quite a change from the 50s we will see the
few nights leading up to the new work week. Late night and early
morning valley fog is also likely during the period, except Sunday
night, when we will see more extensive cloud cover, some rain,
and boundary layer mixing with the frontal passage. Even though
the cold front is well-defined, instability should be low enough
to warrant keeping thunder out of the forecast yet again. That
being said, there are no weather hazards expected in the extended
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2024
Low stratus/fog bank with LIFR or worse conditions over southeast
Kentucky is spreading north of I-64 and west of I-75 at 620z.
Terminals not currently impacted by fog/stratus bank can expect
rapid onset of LIFR to VLIFR with its arrival. These poor flying
conditions are forecast to continue through mid-to-late morning.
Conditions should improve to VFR by midday or early afternoon as
low stratus fog lifts and dissipates. Winds will be light through
the period, around 3 kts or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 4:00 AM EDT---------------
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