NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 1, 1:00 AM AST097
WTNT41 KNHC 302040
TCDAT1
Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts
of convection just east and especially just north of the
generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes
downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this
advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst
does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt
for this advisory based on continuity.
Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the
current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The
official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce
fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous
track forecast.
Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce
is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the
cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains
unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant
low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Konarik/Blake
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 1, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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