NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 30, 3:00 AM GMT274
WTNT45 KNHC 300240
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024
Isaac's expected transition to an extratropical cyclone continues.
The tropical storm's cloud pattern has become asymmetrical, with
cold clouds limited mostly to the north of the surface center, and
it is beginning to take the form of an extratropical rain shield.
Partial ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 45-50 kt, supporting
an intensity of 55 kt after accounting for undersampling. This also
agrees with the most recent tropical Dvorak analysis from TAFB.
The tropical storm should become fully extratropical later today.
Models unanimously indicated that Isaac will continue to gradually
spin down as a post-tropical low during the next several days. By
96 h, the center of Isaac is expected to become poorly-defined as
it interacts with another large non-tropical low pressure system
over the north Atlantic.
Models are in reasonably good agreement for Isaac's track forecast.
It should stay on a generally northeastward track for the next day
or so. Beyond that time, there is some disagreement on exactly how
soon Isaac's post-tropical remnants will turn north-northeastward,
however all of the guidance shows the same generally idea that Isaac
will turn toward a broad trough over the north Atlantic. No
significant changes were made to the NHC forecast, which is based on
the IVCN consensus for intensity and the TVCN consensus for the
track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 44.4N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 45.1N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/0000Z 46.7N 26.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 01/1200Z 48.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0000Z 50.7N 23.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1200Z 52.4N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0000Z 54.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 30, 3:00 AM GMT---------------
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