JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 4:10 PM EDT576
FXUS63 KJKL 022010
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog expected again late tonight into Thursday
morning.
- Mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the week.
- A passing cold front brings a chance of showers to the area,
mainly Sunday night.
- More fall-like temperatures next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
Almost all of the area remains socked in under clouds. Fog is
still present in some places, especially ridges, but gradual
improvement continues. Have blended obs into the forecast and
slowed the clearing trend.
UPDATE Issued at 655 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
Webcams indicate that the thicker fog has lifted off the valley
floors in many locations, though locally dense fog is still
affecting the southeastern ridgetops, as per airport observations
such as PBX and CPF. A few patches of dense fog are still to be
encountered in the typically most fog-prone valley locations as
well, as per reports from incoming dayshift NWS staff. Expect
lingering fog to lift into a low stratus deck between now and 11
AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
A mixture of fog and low stratus is found across most of eastern
Kentucky this morning as a weak cold front sags through the area.
Temperatures range from the upper 50s north up to the lower and
middle 60s further south and east. The combination of mostly clear
skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture has allowed
areas of fog to form across the Kentucky Coalfields, not only in
the valleys but also impacting many of the ridges as well. The
weak cold front is evident from weak biological radar returns and
surface observations, roughly extending from Paintsville to
Jackson to London line. Boundary layer mixing behind the front is
causing the radiation fog to dissipate or thin at most locations
as a trailing low stratus deck moves in. Model soundings and weak
radar returns suggest that some patchy drizzle is occurring with
this stratus.
Through the remaining pre-dawn hours, anticipate the frontal
boundary to continue pushing southeast and exit into Virginia after
5 AM. Anticipate that the fog, especially on valley bottoms, will
tend to thin or dissipate as the front arrives. However, expect
that the low stratus deck impinging on the higher hills and
mountains will lead to renewed visibility reductions on elevated
terrain through the mid-morning hours. This stratus deck may
produce patchy drizzle at some locations. Minimum temperatures
will bottom out around sunrise, ranging from the mid 50s to lower
60s.
The post-frontal low stratus will only slowly lift and erode from
the northwest during the daylight hours today as drier air gradually
works into our region on a northwest flow; in fact, counties
adjacent to the Virginia border may not see substantial clearing
until late this afternoon or evening. Patchy drizzle may linger
over the higher terrain near Virginia into the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs mainly in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
After a day of suppressed high temperatures, high pressure settles
in at the surface and aloft tonight, setting up the ideal
combination of conditions (clear skies and light winds with
lingering low-level moisture) for widespread fog formation, even
impacting many of the ridges. Some of the fog could become dense
late in the night before likely lifting off the valleys floors.
Temperatures are forecast to be cooler, dipping into the upper 40s
in the coolest northern hollows ranging up to the mid 50s in
southern valleys and over thermal belt ridges.
Bright sunshine finally returns for the entire forecast area on
Thursday once the morning fog and any low stratus lift and
dissipate. Forecast highs range from the mid 70s north of the
Mountain Parkway up to the lower 80s in the broader river valleys
south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
A mainly progressive long wave pattern will be in place through
the end of the week, before more notable amplification occurs
into next week. A short wave trough will start out cruising east
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday, with
stouter short wave energy moving in over the Pacific Northwest.
This feature will barrel through the northern Great Basin/Rockies,
intensifying and likely cutting off with time as it moves over
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest region by late Saturday night.
This low will continue to rotate east over Ontario and then Quebec
into next week, with deeper troughing setting up over the eastern
third of the CONUS. At the surface, a weak cold front will push
through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday/Friday night,
providing a small chance (10-20%) of showers across our southeast.
Despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures will continue to
average above normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s,
and lows in the 50s. A stronger cold front will push through
eastern Kentucky Sunday night, providing the area with a better
chance (30-50%) of showers. More fall-like temperatures then
follow this front into next week, with highs retreating back to
the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 40s, under mostly clear skies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
VLIFR to MVFR conditions were reported across the forecast area at
TAF issuance. Widespread low stratus and fog will gradually lift
this morning and erode from the northwest, yielding a slow
improvement to VFR areawide. Fog is expected to develop again
tonight and lead to significant visibility reductions to IFR or
worse after 6z. Lastly, winds will remain variable around 5 knots
or less through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 4:10 PM EDT---------------
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