NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 23, 5:00 PM EDT845
WTNT44 KNHC 232053
TCDAT4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are
gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the
convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the
circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the
disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds
noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The
scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on
the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the
initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.
The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but
the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day
or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing
between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late
Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should
cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to
diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to
become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a
very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core,
these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The
NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on
Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI
guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very
likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system
reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity
forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional
hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses
the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the
system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the
coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that
area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 23, 5:00 PM EDT---------------
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