NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 15, 7:00 AM AST525
WTNT42 KNHC 150238
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024
Gordon's surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening
and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective
mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the
past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this
advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity
T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and
global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle
and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh
thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that
the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as
it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the
surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is
expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric
conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity
forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5
in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The
Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to
show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently,
subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global
models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above.
Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or
245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge
extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North
Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west
during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response
to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone
approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually
turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This
forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone
will survive during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 15, 7:00 AM AST---------------
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