NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 14, 7:00 AM AST297
WTNT42 KNHC 140240
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024
A 13/2045 UTC CSA RADARSAT Constellation Mission VH polarization
image indicated that Gordon's surface center was farther east than
previously indicated. Subsequently, the surface center has become
more obscured while the convective mass has expanded somewhat over
the western portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an
intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.
Although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows the westerly
shear gradually diminishing through the period, the dry, stable
thermodynamic surrounding environment is expected to be the primary
inhibiting parameter. Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low
around mid-period, although not shown explicitly in the NHC
forecast. Beyond day 3, the official forecast shows gradual
re-strengthening while atmospheric conditions become less hostile.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
based on the IVCN intensity consensus and below the Decay SHIPS
statistical guidance.
Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 280/8 kt
and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending
west-southwestward from high pressure over the Azores. The cyclone
should continue slowly toward the west to west-southwest during
the next 72 hours. Afterward, a break in the subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid-
to upper-level trough. As Gordon approaches this growing weakness
in the ridge, the cyclone should turn toward the northwest and
north. This forecast track scenario, however, assumes that the
cyclone strengthens toward the end of the period. Only a slight
adjustment to the left of the previous forecast beyond day 3 was
made to lie closer to the TVCN consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 19.8N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 14, 7:00 AM AST---------------
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