ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 7:53 PM EDT448
FXUS61 KILN 132353
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue over the Ohio Valley through at least
Monday. An upper level high pressure system running from the
southern Great Lakes to the East Coast will remain entrenched in
this area and inhibit any significant airmass change for the
region through this time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A narrow band of light rain over portions of northern Kentucky
will see a few patches continue through about nightfall and
quickly dissipate this early evening. An axis of higher level
moisture running nw-se through Cincy metro area will keep mid
level cloud cover here overnight, clearing up early Saturday.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s in the south under
some blanketing cloud cover to the upper 50s and near 60 in the
north and east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any morning cloud cover will quickly break up in favor of sunny
skies, leading to high temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Overnight lows will remain comfortable and drop to the lower 60s
over northern Kentucky and the Dayton, Columbus, and Cincy metro
areas, upper 50s for the remainder of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday morning, an upper high will remain in place over the
eastern Great Lakes region, with lower heights over the southeastern
CONUS. The Ohio Valley will still be in a dry and stagnant pattern
as a result of the high, with generally easterly flow and very
little chance for precipitation. Confidence in this forecast is very
high for Sunday through Tuesday, with temperatures remaining above
normal (well into the 80s) though highs will gradually decrease by a
couple degrees each day.
Forecast confidence gets a little lower from Wednesday onward, with
indications that some kind of low pressure system will develop near
the southeast coast, and eventually move inland at some point in the
second half of next week. Model solutions on how this will play out
are not in great agreement with each other. The more aggressive GFS
solution for the Ohio Valley, which brings a system across the
Appalachians and into the area, seems a bit unrealistic given the
track and the very dry antecedent conditions the system would be
running into. For now, factoring in other models and ensembles,
precipitation chances seem too low to include in the forecast for
now. It is just worth noting that at some point in the second half
of next week, there could be some eventual increase in moisture
coming into the area from the southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
shower activity will move near KCVG and KLUK at the start of the
TAF period, otherwise dry conditions are expected. Mid and high
clouds will be present at times through the TAF period along
with cu during the daytime hours. Winds will also pick up during
the daytime hours, however wind gusts are expected to be
isolated and therefore left out of the TAFs.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 7:53 PM EDT---------------
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