IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 6:25 PM EDT636
FXUS63 KIND 132225
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
625 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rainfall from Francine remnants through this evening will be
focused over southwest portions of central Indiana
- Very warm and tranquil weather next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Mid and high level clouds have continued to overspread central
Indiana this afternoon with dissipating rainband on the norther
extent of TS Francine's remnants over the lower Wabash Valley. Areas
beneath rain or thick cloud cover have remained in the upper 600s to
mid 70s, where as areas N/E of the rain have quickly increased into
the low 80s this afternoon.
The center of what is left of Francine has drifted northwest into
southern MO as of this afternoon and will continue to spin aimlessly
over that area while it weakens/fills in the presence of AVA on the
upstream portion of an amplified ridge. The position of the remnants
today and the expected weakening of the system over the next 24
hours do not bode well for much needed rainfall over most of the
forecast area with trends pushing towards a mostly dry forecast
across central Indiana tonight and tomorrow. Still, some of SW
central Indiana was able to get upwards of 2" this
morning/afternoon; namely Knox and Daviess Counties.
High pressure will become increasingly dominant tonight and
tomorrow, helping reintroduce broad subsidence and adiabatic
warming. This should lead to decreasing RH Saturday and deeper PBLs
allowing for occasional gusty conditions of around 15kts tomorrow
afternoon. SCT cloud decks and these decreasing dew points will also
help decrease overnight lows, with most of the area dropping into
the low to mid 60s tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Although models and later ensembles are having some differences in
handling of the remnants of Francine and east coast development of
another area of low pressure, for the most part the Rex Block is
expected to maintain through the extended and provide tranquil
weather with well above normal temperatures. DESI grand ensemble
25th and 25th 6 hour PoP and QPF percentiles support only around 20%
PoPs over far southwestern sections of central Indiana into Sunday.
As the remnants of Francine weaken and drift south, and the east
coast low develops, all of central Indiana should see plenty of
sunshine and very warm and dry conditions which will add to drought
concerns.
DESI grand ensemble and LREF difference in 25th and 75h percentile
2m temperatures are within 4 or 5 degrees over the extended lending
good confidence to the expected 5 to 10 degree above normal
temperatures with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 625 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Impacts:
- Decreasing cloud coverage tonight
- Southeast winds may gust up to 20kts on Saturday afternoon
Discussion:
Remnant moisture from what is left of Francine continues to move
across the southeast half of central Indiana. A few sprinkles or
light showers remain near KBMG and KHUF but should see this diminish
through mid evening as drier air gradually advects back into the
region.
Deeper moisture will be forced to the west of central Indiana
tonight as the high pressure ridge to our east once again exerts its
influence. Expect an overall decrease in cloud coverage overnight
as a result with light easterly flow. Likely to see scattered
diurnal cu development for the afternoon Saturday with lingering mid
and high clouds. Gusts up to 20kts are possible at times in the
afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 6:25 PM EDT---------------
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