ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 10:09 PM EDT992
FXUS61 KILN 130209
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1009 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high pressure ridge extending into the Ohio Valley
from the East Coast will break down tonight and early Friday as
the gradient becomes more uniform. A drying east wind in the
Ohio Valley will occur as high pressure in the Northeast
competes with low pressure in the Gulf states that is left over
from Francine. Eventually, high pressure becomes entrenched
along and east of the Great Lakes region for the weekend until
another disturbance works northwest from the southeast coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid and high clouds will continue to move north across the
region from the remnants of the tropical system. A few light
showers will have the potential to get into far southwestern
portions of the region late in the near term. Low temperatures
will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A building upper level high in the Great Lakes will continue to
strengthen as the axis sets up along and just east of the OH/PA
border. This will win out over any moisture trying to work in
from the southwest, and rain potential from Friday morning will
significantly weaken and run into a block stretching nw-se
through the Cincy area. Afternoon rain potential and beyond
looks to be quite scant.
Highs near 80 in the far southwest will rise to the mid 80s for
much of the CWA and upper 80s in the Columbus metro area,
consistent with the thicker cloud cover and a somewhat increase
in humidity to the southwest.
Overnight lows will drop to the mid 60s in the south to the
lower 60s over the northern 2/3 of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Blocking pattern will remain entrenched with upper high over
the eastern Great Lakes being the predominant feature affecting
the region through the weekend. This will keep dry conditions
with above normal temperatures.
The block transforms into more of an omega as a system comes
ashore along the south Atlantic coast, getting absorbed into
preexisting upper low over the southeastern states. This results
in an expansion of the upper low and an eventual retrogression
to the northwest heading into midweek. Continue to see some
solutions that suggest that the south Atlantic system could
maintain integrity as it crosses the Appalachians, allowing it
to then head into the Ohio Valley. While this cannot be
discounted, it seems more likely that there will just be a low
level inverted trough along the Appalachians. Sufficient
moisture may pool along the trough to get some diurnal
convection into eastern counties. But at this point, expect
precipitation to remain scant. Most if not all of the area will
remain dry with above normal temperatures persisting.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid and high
clouds will continue to stream up into the area from the south
through the TAF period. In addition, there will be some VFR cu
at times. Limited any precipitation mention tomorrow to KCVG and
KLUK. Dry air will remain in place at the other area TAF sites
with KCVG and KLUK just on the northern fringe of the
precipitation. Cannot rule out wind gusts on Friday, however
they are expected to be more isolated in nature than today and
therefore did not include in the TAFs at this time.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 10:09 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
