PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:25 PM EDT236
FXUS61 KPBZ 131825
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
225 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through
early next week under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues with above-average temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure remains centered just northeast of the region
providing plenty of sunshine with above normal temperatures. Cirrus
associated with Francine's remnants are expected to linger primarily
south of the Mason-Dixon line through this evening before thinning
and retreating to the south. With 850mb temperatures similar to
yesterday, if not a touch higher with weak warm advection aloft,
expect highs near Thursday's readings.
Mostly clear skies with a light easterly gradient breeze tonight
will allow lows to dip into the mid to upper 50s, similar to
Thursday night. Areas of river valley fog are again favored
north of Pittsburgh similar to the previous few nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with temperatures still above average.
- Turning a bit breezier over the weekend, especially in higher
elevations of West Virginia.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence forecast continues into the weekend with more of the
same from the this past week. Surface high pressure remains dominant
and builds further as Francine's remnants will be blocked off to our
south and west as it weakens. Strong 588-590 dam upper level ridging
remains across the Great Lakes region.
Plenty of sunshine with 850 mb temperatures bumping up perhaps a
degree or two combined with modest height rises will support
temperatures once again near 10 degrees above average. Wind will
become a bit breezier over the weekend, especially in the higher
elevations, as the gradient tightens with the high slowly meandering
east and a coastal low pressure system progged to develop off the
coast of the Carolinas. This could result in some elevated downslope
wind gusts for the ridges and adjacent areas given a southeasterly
direction. Latest NBM and HREF probabilities are hinting at 30 mph
not being off the table for the in the higher elevations in West
Virginia.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures gradually drop through mid-week but still above
normal.
- Low probability rain chances by mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Still seeing good agreement among the ensembles to start off the
next work week with high pressure in place. The only notable change
to the pattern is that the high will begin to flatten some and
meander to the east as a wave passes to the north and a coastal low
begins to take shape offshore of the Carolinas. Dry weather is
favored to continue through Monday and most of Tuesday areawide with
temperatures gradually falling a couple degrees each day but still
above normal.
By mid-week is where things get at least a little more interesting
comparatively. As the coastal low takes shape, the high will weaken
and break down. Upper ridging remains, but the low looks to be able
to sneak underneath it. Ensemble clusters then present essentially
two camps: one where the low merges with Francine's remnants
becoming slightly deeper and one where it doesn't merge and remains
weaker. Our best rain chances would be mostly tied to the merging
solution which is lower probability. The majority of clusters
represent a drier solution with lacking deep layer moisture and the
highest probability of rain shunted to our east. Opted to hold with
NBM which offers generally 20-30% PoPs, highest south and east of
Pittsburgh, until a clearer solution becomes evident.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally light east-southeasterly winds and VFR conditions
persist with stationary high pressure over the area. As with
recent days, there is a low probability that patchy fog impacts
FKL/DUJ during pre-dawn hours, with brief reductions in vsbys
to MVFR possible generally in the 10Z-12Z timeframe. Confidence
in this occurring remains too low to warrant mentioning in the
TAFs at this time.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will continue through the weekend as the region
remains under high pressure. The exception will be the chance
for river valley fog each morning, primarily around FKL.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:25 PM EDT---------------
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