ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 7:24 PM EDT889
FXUS61 KILN 112324
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
724 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain control of the weather in the Ohio
Valley for another day of dry conditions. Cloud cover will
increase from the southwest Thursday night ahead of the remnants
of Francine. Friday morning may see light rain and showers
southwest of Cincinnati, but the probability is confined to the
early morning and not overly likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Another clear night is in store for the region. Clear skies
combined with a light east wind will see low temperatures drop
into the upper 50s, closer to 60 in metropolitan areas, and a
little cooler in the mid 50s for rural and low-lying areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing cirrus clouds from the southwest during the day
will mute high temperatures over th southern 1/2 of the CWA.
Highs in the north and in the Dayton metro area will reach the
mid-upper 80s, while in the south they should top out around 85,
maybe a degree or so warmer in and north of metro Cincy.
A small threat for some light rain exists in the southwest
forecast area very late in the overnight period, closer to
daybreak. This is primarily focused on a moisture transport
from the southeast as the remnants from Francine begin to nose
toward the MO bootheel. Low temperatures will be warmest in the
southwest due to more cloud cover, and coolest in the northeast
with some higher clouds inhibiting any robust temperature drops.
Lows will range from the upper 50s in the northeast, low to mid
60s in the remainder of the forecast area and in metro Columbus,
highest in metro areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rex block will be in place through the weekend. This will limit
northward extent of any deeper moisture and thus precipitation
potential, keeping it limited to the Tri-State, especially
south/southwest of Cincinnati. And even at that, any
precipitation amounts should be modest at best.
Blocking pattern will take on a bit of a different orientation
heading into next week. The upper low will retrograde as a
system comes onshore along the south Atlantic coast and then
progresses into the central Appalachians. It is possible that
some moisture from this system may push into the area from the
southeast towards the middle of next week, although there is
quite a bit of uncertainty that far out in time, especially if
low level flow remains easterly which is a drying, downsloping
wind.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Cannot
rule out a brief period of reduced vsbys with river valley fog
at KLUK overnight, however with high clouds moving in from the
south and dry airmass in place, confidence was not high enough
to include in the TAFs at this time. A few cu will be possible
on Thursday along with high clouds. Winds will pick up during
the afternoon and early evening hours on Thursday with some wind
gusts around 20 knots.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 7:24 PM EDT---------------
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