PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 7:41 AM EDT297
FXUS61 KPBZ 111141
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
741 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through
the weekend with high pressure and ridging aloft.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Seasonable overnight temperatures with patchy river valley
fog.
- Above average temperatures this afternoon as highs gain around
five degrees.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence dry weather continues as surface high pressure
slowly shifts eastward. Clear skies and calm wind will again
lead to patchy river valley fog early this morning, though
meager surface moisture will be a limiting factor. Otherwise, a
quiet overnight continues.
Dry conditions and plentiful sunshine under high pressure will
allow another quick warm-up after sunrise. Afternoon highs will
push into the 80s for most of the area outside the highest
terrain. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 50s,
roughly five degrees warmer than Wednesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue under
high pressure.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper ridge axis will advance over the Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday as dry and warm conditions continue. By Thursday
Francine will be traveling up the lower Mississippi Valley.
Ensembles continue to trend towards stronger mid-level ridging,
increasing confidence in rainfall from Francine's remnants
remaining well south and west of the area. The one impact we are
likely to see from Francine is an increase in high clouds
Thursday and Friday as cirrus blowoff from the storm shifts
north. This will have minor impacts on temperatures as we close
out the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through
the weekend.
- Francine's remnants will likely linger south and west of the
area.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As mentioned above, ensembles have continued a trend towards
strong ridging across the northeast, with increased confidence
in dry conditions extending through the weekend into early next
week as the remnants of Francine meander over the Mississippi
Valley. In response, have removed the limited PoPs for Sat-Mon.
Confidence decreases after Monday with models hinting at low
pressure development off the Carolinas by Tuesday. This would
increase rain potential for the middle of next week, though
reasonable scenarios still exist for dry weather in our area
through the middle of next week.
Temperatures remain above-average into early next week, with
highs running 5-10 degrees above the norm (low/mid 80s for
most).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with light wind is expected areawide through the TAF period
as high pressure persists.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the week under the
influence of high pressure. The exception will be low-
probability river valley fog each morning.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 7:41 AM EDT---------------
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