PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 6:27 AM CDT345
FXUS63 KPAH 101127
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A return of above normal temperatures can be expected today
and Wednesday.
- Remnants of tropical system Francine will bring an extensive
period of rain chances to our region late this week into the
weekend.
- Significant rainfall is expected late Thursday into Friday
evening, with some severe thunderstorm potential Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
Surface high pressure will be centered east of our region today.
Winds will shift from east to southeast, helping boost our
temperatures back to above normal readings in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees today and Wednesday. Light winds, mostly clear
skies and dew points in the lower 50s tonight will keep our
lows a little below normal in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Increasing clouds Wednesday night will raise our lows to a
little above normal readings in the lower 60s.
Models show Hurricane Francine making landfall late Wednesday
afternoon/early Wednesday evening in south central Louisiana,
with the weakening remnants moving northward along the lower
Mississippi River Wednesday night into Thursday. There is good
model agreement showing the remnant low hanging up over extreme
southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas/west Tennessee Thursday
night into at least Saturday. Showers will spread north across
the PAH forecast area Thursday, with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. The most
significant rainfall will be Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night with the initial arrival of the low, then there may be
some potential for severe storms Friday east and northeast of
the low. Current forecast rainfall totals for Thursday through
Saturday are in the 1.5 to around 3 inch range. Due to our
region being in such a rainfall deficit, these amounts are not
expected to cause anything but localized issues at best. Track
and timing will continue to be fine tuned, and may lead to some
adjustments.
Models show the associated upper low meandering just south of
our region Sunday into early next week. This lingers 20-30%
chances of showers and storms, highest chances in our eastern
counties, Saturday night through Monday. The best chances will
be during the heat of the day.
Clouds and rainfall will keep daytime highs below normal
Thursday and especially Friday and Saturday, and lows a little
above normal. Temperatures will trend back to seasonable
readings Sunday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
LIFR fog at KCGI will dissipate by 14z. VFR conditions expected
at all TAF sites with just increasing high clouds from the south
after 01z. Calm winds will become southeast around 5kts after
14z, then light and variable to calm after 01z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 6:27 AM CDT---------------
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