PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 8:22 PM EDT807
FXUS61 KPBZ 090022
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
822 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An extended dry period is expected for the upcoming week. Above
average temperatures are anticipated after Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Frost Advisory in effect for eastern Tucker county early
Monday morning.
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Greater influence from surface high pressure underneath waning
northwest flow aloft will promote strong radiational cooling
across the region overnight. Temperature is likely to fall
around 10 degrees below the daily average, though areas that can
stay mixed (elevated locations or near I-80) may see lesser
drops than valley locations. A Frost Advisory is in effect for
eastern Tucker County due to higher probability of temperature
falling below 40 degrees and allow for frost formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rising temperature and dry weather is expected through
Wednesday
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Height rises in response to gradual shifts in the central CONUS
ridge will maintain dry weather with rising temperature Monday
through Wednesday. Probabilities favor near normal readings for
Monday afternoon, with most of the region seeing 70 percent or
greater chances of 80+ degree readings Tuesday/Wednesday. There
is even a low probability (10-20%) of locations across southeast
OH reaching 90 degrees.
The exception to the dry weather is a low probability for a
light rain shower Monday afternoon as a weak shortwave within
the New England trough glances northwest PA. The only other
notable weather during this period is potential for lofted
western wildfire smoke to create hazier skies. Latest hi-res
modeling favors Monday morning for higher concentrations aloft,
with a potential secondary plume arriving mid week. There is
very low probability this smoke will mix to the surface.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures through
next weekend
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Model ensembles indicate a ridge will persist across much of the
eastern CONUS through at least Saturday. Operational and model
ensemble members diverge later Saturday and Sunday in handling
of a low drifting north from the Gulf of Mexico.
GFS ensemble members keep this low further west than ECMWF
members. The NAEFS and NBM blend these two scenarios, which
results in a mainly dry forecast for the Upper Ohio Valley
region. Stayed close to this blended scenario in the long term
period, with only slight chance pops late Saturday and Sunday to
account for uncertainty. Temperatures are expected to average
above seasonable levels through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period under
high pressure. Impacts of river valley fog may develop between
09Z to 12Z near FKL Monday, however confidence remains too low
for mention in TAFs at this time.
Winds relax and shift to more westerly or southwesterly
overnight before increasing again on Monday. Probabilities of
gusts 15kts to 20kts Monday afternoon are once again high (>70%)
at FKL/DUJ where the local pressure gradient remains strongest,
with decreasing probabilities the farther south you go (40-60%
at PIT and <30% at MGW).
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the next week under
the influence of high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 8:22 PM EDT---------------
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