IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 3:22 AM EDT946
FXUS63 KIWX 060722
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
322 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers accompanied by a rumble of thunder today.
- Much cooler Saturday; lake showers ending late.
- Very warm next week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
- Drought conditions expected to become more intense.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
The cold front was moving across the area early this morning.
Thunder was quite spotty/isolated in an environment of SPC
mesoanalysis CAPE values up to 1500 J/Kg. There was virtually no
shear but storms have been able to produce very heavy rainfall
rates but relatively low rainfall amounts. A mesonet site near
Knox indicated a rainfall rate of 6"/hr with an inch of rain in
10 minutes, but this was an extreme amount (highest rate with
this system). Other than the heavy downpours, there does not
appear to be any risk for severe weather with the low shear
values. The event will transition to a lake effect rain shower
event before ending. The resolution of early model (GFS)
forecasts this week was not able to capture lake shower activity
very well, especially compared to the 3Km HRRR which appears to
handle this event quite well. Have updated the lake shower
coverage and intensity with the 00Z HRRR forecast in coordination
with Chicago, Milwaukee and Grand Rapids offices. There are a
lot of favorable parameters in this event including a large lake
fetch, delta T values rising close to or above +20C generating
lake CAPEs up to 1000 J/Kg and EL heights to 25,000 ft. Lake
effect showers should end around midnight Saturday night as
winds back and as inversion heights fall.
After Saturday night, dry and much warmer weather is ahead next
week as an upper level ridge builds northeast. Given the ECMWF
and GFS 850 mb temps in the 97th percentile for this upcoming
week, have raised model blend temperatures 2F to trend toward
the 97th percentile (FWA) temperature of 93F. These temps are
supported by the rapid drought development and feedback favoring
warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Cold front through KSBN attm and will push through KFWA by 10Z.
Brief/transient period of post frontal MVFR based status
possible especially if frontal forced showers can expand.
Otherwise rapid drying follows after daybreak with increasingly
gusty northwest winds through the day as diurnal mixing deepens.
Gusts aoa 25kts likely for a time this aftn.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for MIZ177-
277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...T
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 3:22 AM EDT---------------
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