CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 2:16 PM EDT143
FXUS61 KCLE 081816
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
216 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across much of the central and eastern
United States and persist through much of the week, favoring a
warming and drying trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the most part, dry weather will persist across the area
through the near term period. The only exception will be across
NW PA where a few showers may clip Erie County as a trough
pushes across the region Monday. With that being said, surface
high pressure will suppress the best moisture to the east of the
CWA so the higher chance of showers should be focused across
western New York (which will be downwind from Lake Erie). PoPs
are limited to slight chance (less than 25 percent). Despite the
dry weather across most of the area, it will be quite blustery
late Monday morning into Monday afternoon with southwest wind
gusts to 20 to 30 mph expected. The highest gusts will occur
close to Lake Erie and in the flatter terrain of NW OH.
Another night of unseasonably cool temperatures is on tap with
tonight's overnight lows falling into the 40s. Locations along
the lakeshore will most likely remain in the 50s tonight. A
warming trend begins to unfold Monday and expect highs in the
70s with lower 80s likely west of I-71.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Overall quiet and very warm weather is expected in the short term
period. An upper level trough will be to our east and an upper level
ridge will be building to our west with a northwest flow aloft over
the eastern Great Lakes region Monday night. At the surface, a high
pressure system will be over the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
region. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge of high pressure will
expand from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
The weather will remain dry with mostly clear skies. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s over NWPA to
the mid 80s over NWOH. Temperatures further climb into the lower 80s
over NWPA to the upper 80s over NWOH. A few locations may reach 90
degrees by the middle of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the end of the week, the upper level ridge will be centered over
the Great Lakes region with dry and very warm weather. The ridge
will slide eastward over the weekend allowing for some remnant
tropical moisture to move northward from the Gulf Coast region into
the Ohio Valley. We may see some isolated chances for showers and
storms by next weekend. High temperatures will remain above average
in the 80s for the end of the week. Temperatures next weekend will
range in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. Can't rule out a few
showers in the vicinity of KERI at some point Monday, but the
greatest chance of precipitation should remain to the northeast
of the terminal so did not include in the TAF with this update.
West/northwest winds 8 to 14 knots with gusts to around 20
knots will continue through this afternoon before diminishing to
10 knots or less and becoming southwesterly tonight. Southwest
winds increase significantly Monday with sustained winds 10 to
18 knots and gusts to about 25 knots likely from 15Z onward.
The highest gusts will occur at KERI, KCLE, and KTOL.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories will remain up for the central and eastern
basin today. Westerly winds 10 to 20 knots will make 2 to 5 feet
waves in the SCA area. Lighter winds and waves expected on the
western basin today. Winds will be come more southwesterly tonight 5
to 12 knots but increase again on Monday 10 to 20 knots and waves 2
to 4 feet We may need another SCA for the central and eastern basin
again on Monday. High pressure will be near by Tuesday through
Thursday with lighter winds and waves.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011-
012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 2:16 PM EDT---------------
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