CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 3:27 AM EDT243
FXUS61 KCLE 080727
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
327 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across much of the central and eastern
United States and persist through much of the week, favoring a
warming and drying trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mainly quiet near term period is in store as a large area of
high pressure begins to build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS today into next week. A secondary upper trough
will move east across the Central and Eastern Great Lakes later
today into Monday, though it is expected to have more broad
impacts across western NY rather than our area.
For this morning, winds remain light, though there appears to be
enough of a pressure gradient to limit total boundary layer
decoupling. Surface dew points have been relatively steady in
the upper 30s to lower 40s under clear skies, so the patchy
frost potential across Northwest and North-Central OH still
appears reasonable, mainly in low spots/valleys. Much of the
area should experience pleasant weather today with highs
reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny skies.
By late tonight into Monday, another upper trough will move east
across the Central and Eastern Great Lakes, though the air mass
will not be as cool given the building ridge to the west. The
best dynamics and moisture overlap appear to favor western NY
for the most widespread precipitation chances on Monday, though
can't rule out some isolated to scattered rain activity across
far NE OH and NW PA. Highs on Monday will continue to warm into
the 70s and perhaps lower 80s across NW OH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Overall quiet and very warm weather is expected in the short term
period. An upper level trough will be to our east and an upper level
ridge will be building to our west with a northwest flow aloft over
the eastern Great Lakes region Monday night. At the surface, a high
pressure system will be over the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
region. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge of high pressure will
expand from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
The weather will remain dry with mostly clear skies. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s over NWPA to
the mid 80s over NWOH. Temperatures further climb into the lower 80s
over NWPA to the upper 80s over NWOH. A few locations may reach 90
degrees by the middle of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the end of the week, the upper level ridge will be centered over
the Great Lakes region with dry and very warm weather. The ridge
will slide eastward over the weekend allowing for some remnant
tropical moisture to move northward from the Gulf Coast region into
the Ohio Valley. We may see some isolated chances for showers and
storms by next weekend. High temperatures will remain above average
in the 80s for the end of the week. Temperatures next weekend will
range in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Lake-effect clouds continue to stream
off of Lake Erie, though coverage remains mostly scattered,
apart from ERI where bkn to ovc ceilings of around 5kft may
persist into mid-morning. Otherwise, only some high cirrus will
arrive from the west by later this morning and afternoon.
Winds are generally light and variable across the TAF sites
early this morning apart from ERI where northwest winds of
around 10 knots remain. Winds will increase out of the northwest
by later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with gusts
of 20 to 22 knots possible.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories will remain up for the central and eastern
basin today. Westerly winds 10 to 20 knots will make 2 to 5 feet
waves in the SCA area. Lighter winds and waves expected on the
western basin today. Winds will be come more southwesterly tonight 5
to 12 knots but increase again on Monday 10 to 20 knots and waves 2
to 4 feet We may need another SCA for the central and eastern basin
again on Monday. High pressure will be near by Tuesday through
Thursday with lighter winds and waves.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 3:27 AM EDT---------------
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