PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 7:46 PM EDT324
FXUS61 KPBZ 062346
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will increase the risk for showers and
storms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Much
cooler on Saturday. Sunday looks to be the start of another
extended dry period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and storms looking likely late this afternoon and
evening.
-Rain coverage and intensity lessens tonight.
----------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave trough will continue to traverse the region this
afternoon and into the evening. the first wave is crossing
western PA/eastern OH now. The clearing earlier in the day has
allowed for enough instability to pop some showers and weak
thunderstorms.
The actual cold front is crossing central OH currently. The 12Z
sounding from PIT showed a decent cap at about 600MB. Thus, this
will likely take the forcing of the front itself for strong to
severe convection and the main concern will be damaging winds
given the 1000 to 1200 DCAPE through the afternoon and evening.
As currently, storms are topping out at 15 to 20 KFT and are
less impressive in a capped environment ahead of the front.
SPC continues to show a marginal risk for severe storms across
a portion of the region this afternoon and evening. Rain
chances will dwindle once the front clears to the east, which
should be sometime late tonight after 06Z or early Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Showers should end Saturday morning.
-Cloudy and much cooler Saturday.
-Increased sunshine Sunday, but temperatures remain seasonably
cool
-------------------------------------------------------------------
During the day on Saturday, as the rest of the upper trough
passes through the area, lingering showers cannot be completely
ruled out Saturday morning behind the front, due to the trough
axis swinging through and the strong cold air advection. The
cold air advection, and northwest flow aloft, should mean plenty
of clouds on Saturday. High temperatures Saturday look to be 10
to 15 degrees below normal.
A majority of ensembles have the upper low slowly drifting
northeast on Sunday, allowing a reduction in cloud cover,
although flow will advect air sourced from northern Canada,
leaving temperatures around 10 degrees below average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and a warming trend next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Concerning the blocking low in the eastern Great
Lakes/Northeast, some ensembles have the low slower to depart,
others are a bit more progressive. These timing differences are
leading to some temperature uncertainty on Monday, but by
Tuesday, almost all ensembles have the upper low out of the way
and a ridge building in. This translates to high confidence in
highs in the 80s for most by the middle part of next week with
continued dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and increasingly more isolated thunderstorms will
continue along and just behind a surface cold front that will
move southeast through Saturday morning. Initial restrictions
will be tied to convective activity as heavier rainfall rates in
stronger showers/thunderstorms reduce vsbys/cigs. As rain
showers persist ahead of the upper trough axis, cold advection
and column moistening will drop area cigs to MVFR with brief
periods of IFR through 12z.
Dry advection and subsidence will develop around 12z as the
upper trough axis crosses the region. Expect slow improvements
in area cigs (with potential scattering of decks around ZZV)
that may be delayed longer than guidance given NW sub-inversion
flow. Expect occasional NW wind gusts between 15-25kts as lapse
rates steepen with diurnal heating.
.Outlook...
Continued dry advection and subsidence will erode area cigs and
return VFR conditions to all terminals. Those conditions will
persist much of the next week under the influence of high
pressure, save for patchy morning river valley steam fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 7:46 PM EDT---------------
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