PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 12:20 PM CDT307
FXUS63 KPAH 041720
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A return of south winds will bring increasing humidity and
near seasonable temperatures today through Friday.
- A slight chance of showers is in the forecast Friday with the
passage of a cold front.
- Much cooler and drier conditions can be expected for the
weekend, with warming early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024
With surface high pressure moving further to the northeast,
winds will shift to a more southeasterly direction through the
day today. This will continue the rise in dew points to the
lower 60s in the east and upper 60s in the west this afternoon.
The increased humidity and decreasing wind speeds (closer to 5-8
mph) will significantly reduce the fire weather potential
compared to the past two days. However, dry weather continues so
low soil moisture concerns will not be resolved anytime soon. A
slight chance of PoPs has been re-introduced for the late
morning hours in the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence region as
a weak upper level disturbance moves eastward through the
southern portions of the Quad State, potentially producing a few
sprinkles to light showers.
Models continue to keep Thursday dry with Gulf moisture confined
to the Deep South. Clear skies and southerly winds will allow
temperatures to approach 90 on Thursday.
Low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes on Friday with a cold
frontal passage through the Quad State during the day. While the
front provides forcing to generate some showers and maybe a few
lightning flashes, broader scale mid-level flow is diffluent and
models weaken convective potential upon arrival. Average QPF
amounts for the Quad State are trivially low.
Despite lackluster precipitation potential, cold air advection
behind the front is expected to be robust with weekend
temperatures falling well below normal with northerly flow.
Highs in the mid-70s Saturday and lows in the mid to upper 40s
Saturday night will only increase a couple days Sunday, with a
warming trend early next week as a more southerly flow returns.
Ensembles agree on dry conditions for the weekend and early next
week while CPC outlooks suggest little change beyond. Dew
points in the 40s late Saturday through Monday will lead to very
low RHs. Fortunately, following breezy winds Saturday, winds
become light, which will be important in limiting otherwise
favorable fire weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Lingering low VFR and even at times MVFR cigs across mainly
southeast MO and southern IL will lift to mid cloud through the
afternoon and eventually scatter out by evening. Primarily SKC
expected rest of the period. Winds out of the SSE today around
5-8 kts will become nearly calm tonight and light southerly
tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 12:20 PM CDT---------------
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