WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Sep 5, 6:58 AM CDT086
AGUS74 KWCO 051203
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #253 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
658 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024
WHAT...Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding likely
WHERE...East Texas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle
WHEN...Through early this afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF...2 - 5", locally higher (HRRR)
QPE...2 - 4", Isolated totals up to 6" (24hr, MRMS)
Rainfall Rates...Up to 2.5"/hr (HRRR)
Soil Moisture...65 - 90% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
DISCUSSION...
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is moving onshore this morning and
will bring the threat for flash and urban flooding to the area of
concern. Soils are wet to nearly saturated across the region, and are
particularly wet in southeast Louisiana. High and efficient rainfall
rates will also help to overcome infiltration capacity and may lead
to runoff issues. Urban areas of the I-10 corridor are especially
vulnerable and ponding of water and flooding of low water crossings
will be possible. The NWM continues to signal for potential
rapid-onset flooding (ROF) this morning, though the HRRR has been
inconsistent with its placement of QPF. Annual-exceedance
probabilities (AEPs) are generally on the order of 50% or greater,
but there are some isolated reaches along the southern Louisiana and
Mississippi border down to 10%, suggesting some isolated out-of-banks
rises may be possible. Given the high rain rates forecast falling on
wet soils, expected some locally considerable flooding impacts to
occur along the Central Gulf Coast.
//JAW
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...MOB...TAE
ATTN...RFC...ORN...ALR...FWR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Sep 5, 6:58 AM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
