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086 FXUS64 KMOB 030929AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL429 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024A weak front will remain stationary near the coast through the period. Meanwhile, deep layer moisture levels will continue to increase with precipitable water values well over 2 inches by Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and storms by Wednesday afternoon as moisture surges into the area. At this time, no organized severe weather is anticipated due to weak instability and minimal deep-layer shear, however with a nearly saturated profile, cannot rule out the possibility of wet microbursts caused due to precip loading. Aside from that, the biggest concern with this pattern will be the potential for localized flash flooding concerns. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with mid/upper 80s on Wednesday due to additional clouds and rainfall. /13&& SHORT and LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024An upper level ridge over the Southeast shifts east the end of the week as an upper trough that has moved over the Lower Mississippi River Valley continues its eastward movement. Several rounds of shortwave energy move through the mean trough as it passes over the Southeast. Surface high pressure over the East Coast combines with surface low pressure over the Bay of Campeche to create a moderate east to southeasterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico, keeping moisture levels high (between 2" and 2.5" the latter half of the week) over the Southeast as Gulf moisture moves inland. High rain chances are expected into the weekend, topping out Thursday through Friday in response to the high moisture levels and the passing of a strong shortwave. As the axis of the mean upper trough (and last embedded shortwave) passes this weekend, a trailing cold front moves over the Southeast before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sunday, bringing a drier airmass to the forecast area, and a drop in rain chances through the weekend. Several ingredients are coming together to create possible water issues Thursday into Friday evening. The first is good upper divergence coincident with the strongest passing upper shortwave, a surface boundary developing along the coast by Thursday providing decent overrunning, the very high moisture levels, and modest instability (MLCapes in the 500-800J/kg range). Training cells look to be possible with this setup, especially south of Highway 84. Will continue to monitor.The rain coverage through the week and loss of upper subsidence will keep temperatures below seasonal norms the rest of the week. High temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s are expected Thursday and Friday, with a dip into upper 70s in some localities north of Highway 84. High temperatures see an uptick into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend as the rain moves off. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday nights see a drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday nights as the trailing cold front moves across the forecast area.The more organized southeasterly flow with this packages bring an uptick in swell to area beaches through midweek (moderate to high), which then see a slow decrease through the weekend as the swell decreases. Taking a look beyond the current package, guidance continues to advertise a tropical wave passing south of Cuba in the coming weekend, organizing into a tropical system as it heads towards the southern Gulf. Guidance has been generally consistent in taking this system towards the Yucatan Peninsula, and from there, the Bay of Campeche and old Mexico./16 &&.MARINE...Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024A light northeasterly flow becomes easterly today and strengthens tonight. The easterly flow diminishes on Thursday then becomes northerly on Friday. /13&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 94 73 87 72 83 71 82 69 / 50 40 70 70 80 70 80 50 Pensacola 92 76 87 74 84 74 82 72 / 50 50 70 70 80 80 80 60 Destin 93 76 88 74 86 74 85 73 / 50 50 60 60 80 80 80 70 Evergreen 95 70 88 69 84 68 83 67 / 50 20 30 40 60 60 70 40 Waynesboro 95 70 87 69 80 68 81 67 / 50 40 40 50 60 60 60 20 Camden 91 70 85 69 80 67 80 65 / 50 20 20 30 50 50 60 30 Crestview 95 72 88 71 85 70 84 68 / 50 40 50 50 80 70 80 60 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
