JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 8:23 PM EDT602
FXUS63 KJKL 050023 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
823 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will prevail through
Friday, followed by another cool down over the weekend.
- Rain chances return for the end of the week as a cold front
moves through the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2024
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends, but this led to no substantial changes at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 353 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2024
Benign conditions will persist through the short term period.
An amorphous pattern is present in the upper levels, with very
light flow over our area. High level subtropical moisture is
resulting in some cirrus. The prevailing westerlies aloft are
well to our north currently, but a trough is beginning to drop
southeast into the CONUS out of south central Canada. At the
surface, high pressure is positioned to our east, giving us a
general light southerly flow.
The upper trough will move southeast over the Midwest by dawn on
Friday, with an associated cold front from the Great Lakes
southwest through the mid Mississippi Valley. However, we will
still be under the influence of the high to our east.
Although no significant low level warm air advection is expected,
the southerly flow will probably support some ridge/valley low
temperatures differences each night. Dew points should be lowest
in our northeastern counties, supporting the coolest lows in
valleys there. Highs on Thursday should be a touch warmer as the
air mass modifies, and fewer clouds should be present.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2024
The upper level pattern to begin the extended will feature a large
trough of low pressure moving across southern Canada and the Great
Lakes to end the week. A cold front trailing from this trough will
also contribute to rainy weather for eastern Kentucky late Friday,
Friday night, and Saturday. The latest model suggest that mainly
rain showers will occur as the trough and front move through, but
there should be just enough instability present to spark an isolated
thunderstorm or two, especially early Friday evening. The rain
should exit the area by Saturday afternoon, as the trough pulls off
to our east and into New England.
Once the trough has passed by, a large ridge of Canadian high
pressure will settle over the region. This ridge will usher a much
cooler air mass into the region, and will lead to fall like
temperatures across the area to end the weekend and into the
upcoming work week. In fact, indications are that we will see highs
in the lower 70s Saturday and Sunday, and lows in the low to mid 40s
Saturday night and Sunday night. Some valley locations could be even
cooler Sunday night into early Monday morning. With ridging expected
to be overhead most of the time, ridge valley temperature
differences will be favored from Saturday night onward. Patchy
valley fog will also be possible, as conditions will also support
that.
Once the rain comes to an end on Saturday, we should see an extended
period of dry and pleasant weather across eastern Kentucky, as high
pressure maintains a firm grip on our weather. The only weather
hazard of note will be lightning from any thunderstorms that are
able to form late Friday into early Friday evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2024
Aside from localized MVFR to IFR and perhaps locally worse
conditions in fog generally in some deeper valley locations
between about 05Z and 14Z, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Of the TAF sites, KLOZ and KSME are more
probable to be affected where dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
at issuance time. Winds will be light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...MG/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 8:23 PM EDT---------------
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