IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 1:42 PM EDT074
FXUS63 KIND 041742
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
142 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer today and more humid for parts of the area
- Brief shot of rain expected Friday afternoon as a front passes
- Cooler than normal conditions return this weekend into early next
week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Satellite is showing clear skies for much of the forecast area with
high clouds over the SE that are continuing to move eastward.
Forecast is on track thus far with highs near normal today, so a
slight warm up compared to the past few days. Calm weather today
with mostly clear skies continuing through the evening and light
to moderate winds from out of the east.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Warmer air will return to central Indiana today, along with more
humid conditions for parts of the area.
Early This Morning...
Cirrus will continue to flow across much of the area in the pre-dawn
hours, but some thinning/clearing may occur late. Temperatures will
remain cool.
Today...
A weakness in the upper ridge along with an inverted surface trough
will move into the area. Warmer temperatures will accompany the
surface trough. Some higher dewpoints will also work in, mainly
across the southwestern forecast area where moisture advection will
be strongest.
There won't be much forcing with the surface trough, and instability
that builds looks relatively meager. Thus feel that odds of any
showers developing are too low to mention in the forecast.
The bulk of the cirrus will move out, but some cumulus will pop up
in areas with higher dewpoints.
With the warmer air moving in, high temperatures will be in the
lower to middle 80s.
Tonight...
The inverted trough will weaken and surface high pressure will nudge
back into the area. This will provide another dry night for central
Indiana. Light southeast winds will help keep temperatures warmer
than previous nights, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Thursday Through Friday.
By Thursday a surface high pressure will be continuing to slowly
push eastward towards the East Coast and with continued southerly
flow, expect to see 60+ degree dewpoints across all of central
Indiana along with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s for
what may be one of the last times this year. On Friday a seasonably
strong upper level low will be moving into the Great Lakes region
with a surface front expected to pass through Indiana during the
daytime hours.
Moisture profiles look lackluster at best, so only expecting a
narrow axis of rain along the front where forcing will be locally
maximized. Model sounding show little to no instability with this
frontal passage, so even a few rumbles of thunder looks to be
unlikely. With the front expected to pass through the late afternoon
hours, the high temperature will likely occur earlier in the day, so
have made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures going into
the evening.
Saturday Through Tuesday.
There may be a few showers that linger into Saturday with the
potential for a weak wave on the backend of the frontal passage, but
otherwise dry weather is expected as sharp surface pressure
gradients will bring strong CAA near the surface with highs
struggling to rise above 70. Those sharp pressure gradients will
also bring breezy conditions with occasional wind gusts to 25 mph.
Temperatures Saturday night may drop into the low to mid 40s across
north central Indiana with clear skies and dry surface air creating
ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Another breezy and colder than normal day expected for Sunday as the
parent low pressure system continues to remain parked across the
Great Lakes Region as strong ridging off the East Coast blocks the
progression of the low. The low will finally begin to push eastwards
going into Monday, but expect continued cool and dry conditions to
continue into much of the early portions of next week as the upper
level flow remains locked into the northwesterly pattern and the
surface flow begins to stagnate.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Impacts:
-None.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with light
southeasterly winds through much of the day and only passing cirrus
clouds. Some diurnally driven clouds are expected later this
afternoon through sunset. Expect near clear skies tonight with wind
near calm winds veering southerly to southwesterly tomorrow.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 1:42 PM EDT---------------
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