IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 1:37 PM EDT339
FXUS63 KIWX 311737
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
137 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Lake Michigan beaches
Sunday into early Monday.
* Seasonable and somewhat breezy conditions on Sunday turning cooler
by Monday and Tuesday with highs only in the low to mid 70s.
* Warmer temperatures return Wednesday and Thursday before a
cold front brings chances for showers late Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Lingering clouds and showers, southeast of US 24 near a lingering
low level moisture gradient, will push out of the area late this
afternoon and evening as a drier air advects in. This leaves mainly
clear skies and light winds into tonight with lows generally in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees. A cold front then surges south through
the area on Sunday in response to an upper level trough pivoting
through the Great Lakes. Nothing more than a thin line of clouds
should accompany this frontal passage mid morning through mid
afternoon from nw to se, though northerly winds will be somewhat
breezy in the post-frontal CAA regime. The long northerly fetch over
Lake MI will create life threatening waves and currents along
southeastern Lake MI beaches Sunday into early Monday.
An expansive low level anticyclone will follow in for Monday and
Tuesday with cool temperatures and low humidity. Return flow on the
backside of this sfc high, along with ongoing height rises aloft,
allows for a return of above normal temps (highs low-mid 80s) by
Wednesday into Thursday. This warmup appears brief however as the
next upper level trough dives into the Great Lakes from Canada. This
feature will force a cold front through toward the end of the week
with the next chance for showers and isolated storms. With that
said, ensemble and deterministic guidance do not link this frontal
zone up with deeper moisture locked up across the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic. This makes NBM 20-30% type PoPs for late Thursday into
Friday appear reasonable given this and model timing differences.
Cooler wx then in time for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
VFR ceilings and light winds out of the west/northwest persist
today as a cold front slowly sinks south through our area. On
GOES visible satellite imagery, clouds can be seen near KFWA.
KSBN is reporting clear skies while MVFR ceilings linger at
KFWA. Expect a few more hours of high MVFR/low VFR ceilings at
KFWA. Dry conditions will prevail and skies will continue to
clear out overnight. Winds will briefly turn southwesterly
overnight before shifting once again to the north/northwest
tomorrow with strong gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible late Sunday
morning through Sunday evening (just outside of this TAF
forecast period).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 1:37 PM EDT---------------
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