PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 6:32 AM CDT597
FXUS63 KPAH 011132
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- As cold front continues to slowly push southeast across the
region, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger this
morning across southern parts of southeast Missouri and
western Kentucky.
- A refreshing taste of early fall weather is forecast for Labor
Day and Tuesday following the passage of the cold front.
- Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will bring a renewed
chance of showers and higher humidity levels beginning
Wednesday and continuing through Friday.
- Long-range guidance signals another shot of cooler autumn air
will bring dry and very pleasant conditions for next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Today and tonight...Early this morning, a frontal boundary
remains positioned across the heart of the region. A few stray
showers will develop in its vicinity overnight, but most of the
area will remain dry. Additionally, some areas of fog, including
a few spots of dense fog, will persist through the early morning
hours.
After daybreak, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop ahead of the frontal boundary,
mainly across southern parts of southeast MO and western KY.
Areas further north will be dry today. By this afternoon, the
precipitation will shift southward into TN and AR. High
temperatures today will reach the middle to upper 80s. Humidity
levels will drop from north to south this afternoon and tonight
as a reinforcing cold front sweeps through the area. Skies will
clear tonight, with low temperatures falling into the upper 50s
to lower 60s.
Labor Day (Monday) through Tuesday night...Cool, Canadian high
pressure will push southward into the Midwest. This will bring a
welcome break from the heat and humidity. High temperatures
Monday and Tuesday will reach the lower to middle 80s, with
overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Cloud
cover will increase during the day Tuesday ahead of our next
disturbance, but rain chances will hold off until the middle of
the week.
Wednesday through Friday night...Model agreement has increased
that a period of more unsettled weather will return to the
region for the Wednesday through Friday period. The trigger for
this will be a weak disturbance of tropical origins that will
lift north and east from the western Gulf of Mexico coast early
this week. The tropical moisture will bring a return of humid
conditions to the region as well during this period. High
temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s, with overnight
lows in the 60s.
Overall, there will be daily chance of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage
during the heat of the afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts will
from Wednesday through Friday look to range from 0.25" along
I-64 to about 1" along the AR/TN borders. However, locally
higher amount cannot be ruled out due to the nature of tropical
downpours.
Saturday and Sunday...Long-range ensemble guidance is in good
agreement that another push of very comfortable and cooler
autumn air will arrive for next weekend. This will bring very
pleasant conditions. As it stands now, high temperatures next
weekend will be in the middle/upper 70s to lower 80s both days,
along with lots of sunshine. Overnight lows will fall into the
lower to middle 50s as well.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Isolated to widely scattered showers will be invof CGI and PAH
through the morning hours as a cold front continues to push
south of the region. Conditions will be dry further north at
MVN, EVV, and OWB, but shallow LIFR fog will continue to impact
MVN through 14z or so. Cloud bases will be around 5-10 kft
through the morning and early afternoon before lifting to
cirrus. A secondary cold front will move through this evening,
with isolated mid-level cloud cover possible in the 00-06z
window. Winds will be from the N-NW around 4-7 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 6:32 AM CDT---------------
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