LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 3:26 AM EDT683
FXUS63 KLMK 030726
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered showers are possible for Friday afternoon
and evening as a cold front passes through.
* Gorgeous weather expected for the weekend as strong high pressure
sits over our area, with temperatures in the 70s and low humidity
for both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region
this morning will shift eastward to New England by tonight. This
keeps us under steady ENE/E flow through the day, with a dry overall
column. Will make note over some fairly persistent upper clouds that
will stream overhead today and tonight. Already seeing them upstream
on current satellite imagery. As a result, this will likely lead to
some filtered sunshine in addition to a neutral or even slightly
cool advective component. Decided to go on the lower side of the
temp guidance envelope for today as a result. This puts everyone in
the upper 70s and low 80s for highs after our cool start to the
morning, which is a bit below normal for this time of year. Tonight,
high clouds persist so radiational cooling won't be as favorable. As
a result, expect milder temps with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s
for most. Cooler spots could still dip deeper into the 50s.
There does appear to be an inverted surface trough that sets up over
southern KY today, which models are hinting could be enough to
trigger an isolated shower/storm or two. Do have some silent pops
going down across the southern couple of tiers of counties, but
overall coverage/confidence are too low to go with actual mention at
this time. Will monitor for trends through the day, to see if some
mentionable pops need added.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
===== Wednesday - Friday =====
Dry weather continues for Wednesday and Thursday as sfc high
pressure slides to our east and across the East Coast. As a result,
return flow will increase across the region, which will allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s on Wednesday, and closer to
90s on Thursday. Dewpoints will also be a bit muggier, thanks to an
inverted sfc trough extending into the lower Ohio Valley that will
help pull slightly higher moisture into the region. Clouds will also
be more abundant south of the Ohio River on Wednesday, with a mix of
mid-level and high-level clouds expected. Thursday will feature
mostly sunny skycover for the entire forecast area.
Our next chance for measurable precip will not come until late in
the day on Friday, when a cold front will approach the region as an
upper shortwave swings towards the Great Lakes and deepens into an
upper low. Ahead of the front, temperatures will rise into the upper
80s, with sfc dewpoints in the mid-60s. Guidance appears to have
come into slightly better alignment, with PoPs returning to the
forecast by the afternoon, and persisting into Friday night as FROPA
occurs. However, this front will lack abundant moisture, so precip
coverage will likely end up being more isolated and scattered than
widespread. Model soundings depict limited instability elevated off
the sfc, with very weak flow through the column, so stronger storms
seem off the table for this round. Friday into Saturday is our only
chance for rain in the long term period.
===== Saturday - Sunday =====
Isolated shower activity will linger east of I-65 into early
Saturday morning, though we should be entirely post-frontal by
sunrise. Strong Canadian high pressure following in the wake of the
front will bring a reinforcing shot of drier and cooler air for the
weekend. Gorgeous fall-like weather is coming for the weekend!
Saturday will feature drier wx with clouds gradually clearing as the
front departs and high pressure builds. Afternoon highs are expected
to only reach the low to mid-70s, with dewpoints mixing to the 40s
during the day. Another fall-like day is on tap for Sunday as the
sfc high sits directly over our region. Temps in the 70s, dewpoints
in the 40s, and plenty of sunshine.
The coolest temps of the forecast period will be both Sunday morning
and Monday morning, with lows in the 40s for most. Exceptional
radiational cooling will help boost those already below normal temps
to drop 10-15 degrees below climate.
===== Next Week =====
Dry weather continues for early next week as high pressure continues
to sit across the Ohio Valley. While dry wx remains, we'll see our
temps begin to creep back into the 80s for both Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Dry and VFR through this forecast as high pressure centered to our
north controls our region as well. Looking for a steady NE to ENE
wind today with SCT high clouds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 3:26 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
