IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 2:52 AM EDT268
FXUS63 KIND 310652
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
252 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers along with scattered thunderstorms
today. Severe storms are not expected.
- More seasonable temperatures today
- Cooler weather with lower humidity early next week
- Rain chances return late Thursday into Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
An upper trough along with a surface cold front will bring scattered
to numerous showers along with scattered thunderstorms through the
day today.
Early this morning, scattered showers and isolated storms were
mainly across the northern half of central Indiana, but more were
upstream across central Illinois into Missouri.
Plentiful moisture remains over central Indiana and upstream. As
upper heights fall today and the cold front slowly sinks south
across the area, forcing from these features will work with the
moisture to continue to produce showers and storms along and ahead
of the surface front.
Will go likely PoPs for much of the area today, with the highest
PoPs moving south during the day along with the cold front.
Clouds and rain will help keep instability levels down today across
the area, so at the moment severe storms are not expected across
central Indiana. Storms will still be capable of producing gusty
winds and heavy rain though.
Highs today will be much more seasonable, with readings topping out
in the lower to middle 80s.
Will keep some lingering slight chance PoPs in the far south this
evening as the cold front exits. Otherwise, the night will be dry
with decreasing cloud cover as drier air advects in. Lows will be in
the upper 50s north to middle 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Saturday Through Wednesday.
A secondary frontal passage is expected Sunday with the only impacts
being the arrival of much drier air as dewpoints fall from the mid
60s to around 50 Monday morning. Surface high pressure will then
move into place in the aftermath of the front. Pleasant conditions
are then expected for Labor Day as the surface flow remains
northerly to northeasterly which will continue to advect dry and
cool air into central Indiana.
This quiet and fairly stagnant pattern is expected to continue into
Wednesday as the aforementioned surface high pressure continues to
slowly move eastward which will gradually bring an end to the
northerly flow and bring gradually warming temperatures into
Wednesday.
Thursday Through Friday.
By Thursday the high pressure will be over the east coast which will
allow for the surface flow to become southerly again which will
bring a return to mid to upper 80 degree temperatures. Active
weather is expected to the south of the Ohio Valley with a broad
tropical disturbance, but don't expect any impacts to Indiana other
than gradually increasing dewpoints.
Another frontal passage is looking increasingly likely towards the
end of the week with some model divergence and uncertainty in the
ensembles as to the timing with the European/Canadian members a bit
more progressive than the GFS which looks to be a slower outlier.
Thus plan to gradually ramp up POPs late Thursday into Friday but
keep things fairly broad for now. Another shot of Canadian air is
expected in the aftermath of the frontal passage which should bring
another cooler than normal weekend with a decent shot that the cool
air sticks around into the following week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Impacts:
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Saturday along with
some showers
- MVFR conditions likely outside of convection at most sites in
the pre-dawn hours into early afternoon.
Discussion:
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms along with scattered to numerous
showers will continue for much of the first half of the valid
period, then coverage will diminish from north to south Saturday
afternoon. MVFR and worse conditions are possible in convection.
Outside of convection, a period of MVFR ceilings is likely starting
pre-dawn and continuing through the morning. These will mix out to
VFR during the afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 2:52 AM EDT---------------
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