PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 4:31 PM CDT449
FXUS63 KPAH 302131
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
431 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated scattered showers and storms this afternoon turn
widely scattered tonight as a cold front slowly approaches
the region. The best chance for more widespread rain arrives
midday Saturday and continues through the evening. Rain
chances may linger across the south on Sunday.
- Cooler temperatures are in store for the weekend into next
week, with lower humidity arriving in time for Labor Day.
- Daily rain chances return by the middle of next week, followed
by the potential for a stronger cold front the end of the
week that may bring more significant below average
temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Mid level clouds from the south have helped to keep temps a bit
cooler today across SW portions of the FA. Despite maxTs
ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s, higher dewpoints have
allowed for more humid conditions, with heat index values
peaking around 100-105 degrees where skies are still mostly
clear. In the wake of a trailing cold front associated with low
pressure up in Canada, the risk for showers and storms will be
on the increase through tonight. Patchy dense fog will also be
possible, especially across portions of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois as the low-levels in the column become more
saturated with calm winds.
At the moment, convection is expected to remain extremely sparse
this afternoon, with the only real concern currently north of
Perry county Missouri were isolated storms have developed. SPC
Mesoanalysis does show about 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and low-
level lapse rates between 7.5-8.0 C/km to support a brief
isolated damaging wind risk with any additional storms that are
able to develop. Overall, the risk for isolated stronger storms
remains fairly marginal, and will diminish after sunset with the
loss of differential heating.
While the CAMS show additional widely scattered showers and storms
increasing overnight, the greatest risk for more numerous rain now
looks to hold off until midday Saturday when the better PVA and sfc
convergence arrives. SPC does maintain a marginal risk in their D2
outlook, but still may not be necessary for most of the PAH CWA
as the thermodynamics and kinematics remain extremely meager. Model
soundings still show effective bulk shear below 20 kts along with
MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and modest sfc-3km lapse rates around
6.5-7.0 C/km. A brief wet microburst would be the main concern if
there is enough differential heating, but cloud cover combined with
weak flow should help to inhibit the risk.
As for the rainfall potential, QPF still is progged on the lower end
between 0.50-1.50 inches across the south, and only between 0.10-0.50
inches across the north as it is possible some locations end up
seeing very little rainfall. The excessive rainfall potential still
does not look terribly considering, as typical roadway poor drainage
and runoff would be the only real concern with PWATs around 2.00
inches due to the dry soil conditions.
Lingering showers remain possible into Sunday across the south as
the aformentioned cold front pushes into TN. A 500 mb trough
then digs across the Great Lakes region as sfc high pressure
builds SE from the Dakotas allowing for dry weather and lower
humidity heating into Labor Day. Again, relief from the heat is
progged over the weekend with maxTs in the 80s. By Sunday
night, minTs will return to the upper 50s to lower 60s,
continuing into early next week. The NBM and model ensembles
are generally in better agreement with rain chances returning by
the middle of the week. If the latest deterministic GFS/ECMWF
are correct, quite the potent cold front and deep 500 mb trough
may arrive by the end of the week with 850 mb temps plummeting
into the single digits, supporting temps at least 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Scattered convection may necessitate a VCSH or VCTS mention as a
cold front sags south toward the PAH FA tonight. Otherwise,
patchy fog will offer vsby restrictions late, esp at KCGI/KMVN.
More numerous showers/storms are in the back half of the
forecast and may offer additional restrictions.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 4:31 PM CDT---------------
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