ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:31 PM EDT041
FXUS61 KILN 311931
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
331 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening ahead
of a slow moving cold front. Drier conditions will filter into
the region overnight into Sunday. High pressure will build
across the Great Lakes for the first part of the week offering
dry and seasonably mild conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid level flow to amplify as trof settles south from Canada into
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday. A lead
shortwave to track east thru the region - which will allow a
sfc cold front that is pushing into western Ohio - to sag slowly
southeast and weaken as into pushes into the Ohio Valley this
evening.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage in moderately unstable
airmass ahead of this front, with the best coverage south of
the I-71 corridor. PWATs around 2 inches will be observed ahead
of this front. Forcing and saturated nature of the profile,
along with moderate instby and weak deep-layer shear (0-6KM
effective shear around 20kts), will be enough to promote the
development of numerous thunderstorms over the southeast.
DCAPE values are marginally favorable for the potential for
strong winds over South Central Ohio and Northeast KY into
early evening. Given the very moist environment - heavy down
pours and localized flooding will be possible.
Storm activity will decrease in coverage and intensity this
evening. Drier conditions to filter in from the northwest
overnight in the wake of the front. Expect stratus/cloud cover
to develop in the post frontal environment.
Low temperatures overnight to range from the upper 50s
northwest to the upper 60s southeast.
Northwest mid and upper level flow with surface high pressure
building into the Great Lakes Sunday night. Skies will become
mostly clear with lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level flow to amplify with a mean trof settling s-se from
southern Canada into the Great Lakes/New England. Skies will
improve from north to south early Sunday. A secondary front
will move in from the north during the afternoon, offering a
chance of a few showers across the north-northeast counties.
Highs will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s
south of the Ohio River on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cool, dry surface high will build into the middle Ohio Valley
Monday and will continue to provide dry conditions and low relative
humidity through mid-week.
The surface high will push off to the east Thursday which will allow
a bit of return flow. Some guidance has some isentropic lift by late
Thursday with a chance of showers. For Friday, another mid-level
trough brings a cold front into the region with storms along and
ahead of it. Another dry high pressure will likely follow the front
heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage
ahead of a slow morning cold front this aftn into early evening.
The front pushes thru the TAF/s and continues to weaken this
evening with conditions. VFR conditions prevail outside of
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
developing in the wake of the front overnight.
Clouds and vsbys to improve to VFR early Sunday as northwest
winds advect drier air into the region.
Westerly winds at 5-10kts will become light and variable this
evening and then northwesterly toward 12z Sunday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:31 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
