MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 6:30 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...051
FXUS64 KMOB 271130
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
VFR is expected to prevail through tonight, along with a light
east to southeast wind flow. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the seabreeze this afternoon.
Localized lower ceilings/visibility and brief gusty winds may be
possible near storms that develop. At this time, there is not
enough confidence to include convection in the vicinity of the
TAF sites. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
An upper ridge will continue across the area through the period,
while a surface ridge slips southward from the Mid-Atlantic states
to the Southeast states. This deep layer ridging will allow both
high and low temperatures to remain about 3 to 7 degrees above
normal most areas. Made slight upward adjustments to the NBM for
the high temperatures today and Wednesday to account for the trend
the past couple of days. While most convection across the area
will be suppressed during the late night and early morning hours,
we should see enough afternoon instability for scattered showers
and storms to develop across the southern half of the area where
precipitable water (PWAT) values climb above two inches. The
northern half of the area will remain mostly dry and hot as a
drier airmass remains. PWAT values climb above two inches across
much of the area on by midweek, so we are expecting scattered
showers and storms to develop area- wide Wednesday afternoon, and
may linger through mid-evening. Highs today and Wednesday will
reach the mid 90s most locations (low 90s at the beaches) with
heat indices between 100-106 degrees. Lows tonight and Wednesday
night should range from 72 to 75 degrees inland, and from 75 to 80
degrees closer to the coast. The risk of rip currents looks to
remain low for the next several days. /22
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Typical late summer conditions persist through Labor Day. Weak
ridging aloft remains draped across the Southeast through the
early part of the holiday weekend. A shortwave pivoting into the
Mid-South over the weekend may merge with whatever is left of a
weak upper low (that plagued our Gulf waters this past weekend)
over the ArkLaTex region, leading to the breakdown of our ridging
late in the weekend. Down at the surface, the area remains on the
western periphery of a surface high centered over the western
Atlantic through the holiday weekend. A front may attempt to push
into the region by early next week, but it won't make it near our
area until after the holiday (if it makes it down here at all). A
'rinse and repeat' pattern is expected through Labor Day with a
30-40% chance for showers and storms across much of the area each
afternoon and closer to 50-60% across parts of southeast
Mississippi. Highs will top out in the low to mid 90s each
afternoon and with the slight increase in moisture (thanks to the
light southeasterly flow at the surface), heat indices will top
out in the 102-107 range each day. No more fake fall for the
local area - we'll be solidly back into the late summer vibes
through at least Labor Day.
Beach Note: The risk of rip currents is LOW along the coastal
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through the holiday weekend.
However, the RCMOS rip current probabilities show a bump to near
moderate conditions for Friday afternoon, so we'll need to watch
the trends in the probabilities in the coming days. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week and
over the weekend as a light east to southeast flow prevails. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 95 75 93 74 93 74 92 73 / 40 20 50 20 50 20 50 20
Pensacola 93 78 92 78 92 78 91 77 / 50 30 50 20 50 20 50 20
Destin 91 78 92 78 91 78 91 78 / 40 30 40 20 40 20 40 20
Evergreen 96 72 96 72 95 71 95 71 / 20 20 40 20 20 0 30 20
Waynesboro 97 73 96 72 95 71 94 71 / 20 10 50 20 40 20 40 20
Camden 95 72 95 72 94 72 93 72 / 10 0 40 20 20 0 30 10
Crestview 95 73 95 72 94 73 94 73 / 50 30 50 20 40 10 40 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 6:30 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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