BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 7:04 AM EDT204
FXUS61 KBOX 281104
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
704 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid today with dry weather prevailing outside a
brief spot shower. Noticeable cooler air works into the region
tonight and Thursday behind a cold front. Dry and
comfortable to round out the work week. Warming trend
accompanies unsettled conditions this holiday weekend as a series of
fronts cross the region. Dry conditions with below normal
temperatures look likely to start next workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM Update...
A few light, spotty showers have made their way into Essex
County this morning on the southern tip of a more robust line of
rain traversing Maine. Elsewhere, a mix of clouds and sun will
take us through at least the lunch hour.
350 AM Update...
* Very warm & humid today with highs 85-90
* Dry weather prevails today other than a brief spot shower
Mid-level warm front crossing the region early this morning...but
forcing/deep layer moisture is very limited. Therefore...generally
dry weather prevails with nothing more than perhaps a brief spot
shower. Otherwise...partial sunshine expected with gusty southwest
winds especially towards the southeast New England coast. 850T
between +16C to +18C should yield a very warm and humid afternoon.
Highs should top off mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range including
Boston...where there will be no sea breeze today.
A cold front will be crossing the region late this morning into the
afternoon. Some instability will develop ahead of this front...but
the main axis of instability along with the more significant
forcing/deep layer moisture will be southwest of our region. So
think this will generally be a dry frontal passage...other than
perhaps a brief spot shower or two with the best chance south of the
MA turnpike. Regardless...generally dry weather prevails today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Key Points...
* Turning cooler tonight with lows in the 50s to the lower 60s
* Partly sunny Thu & noticeably cooler with highs in the 70s
Details...
Tonight...
Large high pressure noses down from Quebec behind the cold frontal
passage of today. This will result in a cooler flow of northeast air
into southern New England tonight. Overnight low temps should drop
mainly into the 50s with some lower 60s in a few urban centers.
Thursday...
Large high pressure remains across Quebec on Thursday. This should
result in a noticeably cooler NE low level flow of air into southern
New England. We do expect at least partial sunshine on Thu...but can
not rule out some clouds at times flirting with the coastal plain
with the onshore flow. High temps will be held in the 70s on Thu. In
fact...parts of the immediate eastern MA coast will struggle to
break 70!
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* Seasonable and dry conditions persist Friday
* Warming trend through the weekend brings a few chances for wet
weather late Saturday night and again Sunday into Monday
* High and dry by mid next week with below normal temps returning
Friday...
Strong mid level ridging crests over southern New England on Friday
with sprawling surface high centered over southern Canada/Canadian
maritimes. Onshore flow will have a significant influence on high
temperatures again on Friday, with most localities topping out in
the low to mid 70s. A few towns along the eastern MA coastline may
struggle to hit 70F, a sure sign that September is on its way. As
previous forecaster mentioned, good radiational cooling conditions
may lead to pockets of fog Friday morning, but may be limited due to
lack of precipitation, and resulting lack of residual moisture, over
the preceding days.
Saturday through Monday...
A series of cold fronts will cross southern New England this weekend
as broad troughing develops over southern Canada and the Great
Lakes. More robust precipitation chances look to come late Saturday
into early Sunday morning as prefrontal southerly flow increases
PWATs into the 1.75-2" range. Ensemble probabilities remain less
than impressive in terms of 24 hour QPF with both the ECWMF and GEFS
suites in the ballpark of 20-40% chance of 0.5" of rain by mid-day
Sunday. Trough amplifies late Sunday into Monday which may drive
another round of scattered rain showers, but again do not anticipate
a tremendous amount of rain, thus, while unsettled, this weekend
does not look like a washout!
Temperatures will be more mild compared to Friday, warming back into
the mid 80s by Sunday. Aforementioned PWATs will be reflected in
dewpoints climbing to either side of 70F! Should see both
temperature and dewpoints relax Monday as trough begins to slide
east of the region.
Tuesday and Beyond...
High pressure builds in by mid next week behind Monday's departing
cold front. Do anticipate below normal temperatures to start the
shortened work week, with temperatures gradually warming back towards
normal by late week as robust mid level ridging develops over the
eastern CONUS. Given the stronghold of high pressure centered over
our region next week, anticipate precipitation chances will be far
and few between.
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Weak shortwave that looks to bring showers to the region on on
Wednesday will move seaward overnight Wednesday, which will usher in
very seasonable and comfortable conditions Thursday and Friday. With
high pressure in control over southern Quebec and weak low pressure
to our south, off the mid atlantic coast, we'll be stuck in an
onshore flow regime both Thursday and Friday which will help keep
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. In fact, Boston proper may
struggle to eclipse the 70 degree mark!
Saturday and Beyond...
Unsettled conditions return for the weekend as mid level ridging
breaks down and broad trough scoots east over the northern Great
Lakes and southern Canada. Expecting increasing rain chances through
the day Saturday with isolated thunderstorms across our western
zones. Will note that QPF does not look impressive with this first
round of showers, with neither the GEFS or ECWMF ensembles showing
any probabilities of 1" or greater 24 hour QPF.
Trough becomes more robust as a secondary pulse develops over the
Great Lakes late Sunday and moves eastward to round out the Labor
day weekend. Timing is still uncertain regarding when storms
associated with this second wave will develop, so will need to keep
an eye on developing trends to determine if Sunday or Monday will be
the wetter of the days.
Warm air advection ahead of the incoming trough(s) will allow
southerly flow to develop, yielding much warmer highs in the upper
70s/low80s for the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence.
VFR prevails today outside some patches of low clouds/fog
flirting with the Cape and Islands until about daybreak.
Otherwise...VFR with nothing more than a brief spot shower or
two today...but areal coverage/duration of any activity will be
quite limited. SW winds of 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots
and perhaps briefly near 30 knots towards the Cape/Islands this
morning. Winds should then shift to the NW this afternoon at
10-15 knots northwest of the Cape Cod Canal.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR with NNE 5-10 knots. We may have some brief MVFR
ceilings impact the southeast New England coast with the onshore
flow.
Thursday...High Confidence.
VFR conditions dominate...although some MVFR ceilings may flirt
with the coast at times given onshore flow. NE winds 5-15 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thursday...High Confidence.
Small craft advisories continue for many waters today with WSW wind
gusts of 25 knots this morning into mid-afternoon. Winds should
shift to the NW later today and also begin to diminish below small
craft advisory thresholds. Winds shift to the NNE tonight into
Thursday and we may have to watch for another round of 20-25 knot
wind gusts overnight into Thu morning in the cool advection pattern.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230-
250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
ANZ231>234-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ235-
255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS
NEAR TERM...Frank/KS
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Frank/KS
MARINE...Frank/KS
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 7:04 AM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
