LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 12:28 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...259
FXUS64 KLIX 281728
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
Quick update to the grids. No major changes in the forecast or
overall thinking but did adjust for current trends and some hourly
touch-ups. Main adjustment is convection over coastal MS where
expecting a differential heating boundary to set up from the
overcast skies due to cirrus blow off. this would be a little
more inland with convection likely to develop more interior first
over northern Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties. Still
think convection will impact the coastal areas but may be a little
later this afternoon. Convection is also going to start to
develop quickly over SELA. /CAB/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
PW values are slowly rising to the 2 inch area, once they get there
we will stay there for several days. This should start by late
today. Strong easterlies are in full force across the gulf. The
synoptic picture for the short term will be made up of an upper
level low and an upper level maritime high. The center of the
upper high is currently found in a linear orientation from the
northern Yucatan SW to the Bay of Campeche while the upper low is
near the coastal bend of TX. Maritime upper highs are the same
ones found over tropical cyclones and make the environment very
conducive for development when and if there is a feature that can
subduct them or develop beneath them. These upper anticyclones
help by allowing moisture to percolate through them as they
continually fan or move this moisture away from its source,
therefore developing a weak Carnot cycle, this Carnot cycle is
much stronger when involved with tropical cyclones. Tropical
cyclones are not expected with this feature while it resides over
the gulf for the next few days. But it will interact with the
upper low that will linger around east to central TX for the next
few days. This will help cause a weak but strong enough jet
between the two features to help evacuate mass from the lower
levels to induce a more concentrated area of sh/ts from near the
upper TX coast southward along this jet structure into the
southern gulf for the next few days. The jet associated with these
two features is not like a baroclinic system which can attain
much higher jet speeds around 200kt at times. Instead, the
strongest jet between these two will be in the area of 20-25kt.
This is not strong but it is relatively stronger and more
concentrated than any other areas around it. The location of this
linear jet will depend on where these two features move. In the
short term, it won't be much as they will both meander around
where they are. Today we should see the first mass of convective
blow up over the gulf along this line from the NW gulf into the
southern gulf. There will be convective bursts in and along this
line that will occur mainly during the night and morning hours. We
should see a bit more coverage today but this will mainly be
associated with simple air divergence in the upper levels as it
splits over our area due to this interaction between these two
systems along with sea brz production. This upper level spreading
can already be seen in WV sat imagery this morning. But Thursday
looks to be a bit different as the mid and upper flow induces sfc
convergence along this line and helps produce a strong area of
sh/ts along it to the west and moves east through the day. The
movement will be due to the upper low moving slowly NNE by late
Thu. So, all that nonsense to say we should see higher precip
chances Thu than we do today. And this is exactly what the NBM is
showing this morning so we will maintain these numbers since there
is no reason to adjust. Even though most areas need rain, some of
these storms could have some very heavy rainfall with them and if
this falls in a short time, it could cause some nuisance flooding
issues for isolated areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
The upper low moves out but the upper maritime high ridges
northward taking its place. So, we should see a diurnal shift each
day with sh/ts developing over marine areas at night/early
morning and over land during the day. Sea brz boundaries also look
to become a thing for the next several days helping this
convective loop as well. And, yes, these conditions are conducive
to waterspouts for the next several days. Looking well out toward
the end of this fcast, the GFS and the EURO are showing a weak
tropical cyclone moving into the Yucatan and into the Bay of
Campeche by next Wed. This is not too far fetched as this feature
already exists in the form of a tropical wave currently along
about 40W moving west along the 10N lat line. This wave is quite
far south for this time of year and a large baroclinic sfc high
moves into the southern CONUS by the time this wave/low tries to
move into the Yucatan which would keep its trajectory westward and
far south like advertised, but we are within the confines of the
most active part of the year for this activity, so its always
worth keeping a watchful eye on since model and fcast solutions do
change with time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
All terminals remain in VFR for now but convection should continue
to expand through the afternoon likely impacting most if not all
terminals at some point between no and 02z. Convection should
quickly begin to dissipate over the interior with the sun going
down. Main concerns continue to be falling cigs and lower vsbys
with any convection. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
All terminals VFR through this taf cycle with the exception of TSRA
causing temporary restrictions with vis and cigs mainly during the
daylight hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
Not much difference in winds over the north central gulf for the
next week. Wind direction should remain stable from the SE and
speeds should also hold at and around 10kt. There will be plenty of
sh/ts that develop over the coming several days that will cause very
localized strong winds from different directions at times. Storms
will mainly develop in the early morning and some of these could
continue well into the daylight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 90 72 86 / 30 80 30 80
BTR 77 92 75 88 / 40 90 40 90
ASD 75 90 75 88 / 30 80 50 80
MSY 78 90 77 87 / 60 90 50 90
GPT 76 90 76 88 / 30 80 50 70
PQL 76 94 75 93 / 30 80 40 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 12:28 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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