LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 6:55 PM EDT470
FXUS63 KLMK 312255
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
655 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon
and evening. Localized gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be
possible.
* Cooler temperatures, compared to the recent heat wave, expected
for next week. A reinforcing shot of still cooler conditions
possible next weekend.
* Occasional showers possible mid-late week, especially Wednesday
and Thursday, though the chances of widespread heavy rain are low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Nearly stationary sfc boundary is draped just along the Ohio River
this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery has shown the bulk of the
cloud cover mainly north of the boundary. This allowed many
locations across central and southern KY to warm into the low 90s.
This warm up has helped to destabilize the near surface environment
with SBCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Current radar composite shows areas of convection firing over
the Bluegrass around Lexington and along the I-75 corridor. We are
also starting to see areas of convection forming just ahead of the
weak sfc boundary stretching from Owensboro, to Radcliff and
Bardstown as of 240p EDT. Expect to see more development as we
continue through the afternoon and into the early evening. While SPC
continues to keep the region in a marginal risk for severe weather,
confidence remains low due to very weak mid-level lapse rates and
very weak shear. Main threat from storms will be gusty winds
associated with wet downburst, small hail and lighting. PWAT values
just ahead and along the boundary remain around 2.00" this afternoon
so any storm could produce very heavy rainfall over a short period
of time. With the lack of upper level winds, movement of storms will
be slow so localized flooding, especially areas with poor drainage,
could be a concern this afternoon and evening.
As we go overnight, sfc boundary will remain quasi stationary along
the Ohio River. Convective activity will diminish some with the loss
of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere but given the
proximity of boundary and the tight PWAT gradient over the
Commonwealth, a few isolated showers and storms will remain possible
during the overnight ours. Will keep low end 20-30 percent POPS over
the CWA to cover for this possible activity but expect most to
remain dry. Given the drier air will remain mainly to our north
overnight, it will be muggy and mild with morning lows in the upper
60s to near 70, with urban areas like Louisville in the low/mid 70s.
Weak mid-level trough axis will swing through the Great Lakes and
Indiana/Ohio overnight, this will help to push the sfc boundary
southward through the Commonwealth during the day tomorrow. As it
works south during the morning, skies will gradually clear from the
north to the south. With more sunshine expected north of the
parkways, temperatures will likely warm into the mid/upper 80s while
to the south temperatures will be in the low/mid 80s due to cloud
cover. Another round of scattered showers and storms could fire in
the afternoon ahead of the sfc boundary across central KY with the
best chance south of the Parkways into the Lake Cumberland region
and along the KY/TN border.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Sunday night through Tuesday night surface high pressure will
advance from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast, supplying the
region with dry weather and cooler temperatures compared to this
past week. Though the area could definitely use some rain, the
cooler air will be welcomed by many. Low temperatures Sunday night
will hover around 60, but Monday night, with the high centered near
Detroit supplying us with a 5-10 mph breeze out of the northeast,
readings will tumble into the 50s. If realized, these readings would
be 5-10 degrees below normal and about 15 degrees cooler than lows
during the last several days of August. Daytime temperatures will
still be warm, though, as an upper trough over the Great Lakes at
the start of the Long Term lifts out of the region and allows
western ridging to slip eastward (deamplifying as it does so). High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower and middle
80s...fairly typical for early September.
By Wednesday and Thursday we will get into some return flow as the
surface high slips off the New England coast. With dew points
lifting into the 60s and a weak surface trough possibly positioned
over the area beneath an upper jet streak, can't completely rule out
a small chance of showers. However, overall support is weak so will
keep PoPs in the "chance" category.
Confidence is low for the last couple days of the forecast period,
but it appears that a cold front may approach the region Friday-
Saturday and may bring another chance of scattered showers. This
front will bring even cooler air into the district, with high
temperatures for Saturday, as of now, forecast to be in the middle
and upper 70s. Looking a bit farther ahead, Climate Prediction
Center outlooks for September 5 through 13 call for odds tilting
toward cooler than normal temperatures. This has been a fairly
consistent signal over the past few days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Quasi-stationary front is close to the Ohio River, supporting
isolated-scattered convection that has been impacting SDF, LEX, and
RGA. Expect storms in the area through mid/late evening, and
spreading southward to BWG but not affecting HNB. Look for a mid-
level ceiling to develop as convection dissipates after midnight,
but it won't be enough to prevent MVFR cig/vis from developing
toward morning, especially at BWG and RGA. Light/variable winds
overnight with the exception of any storm-driven impacts.
By mid or late morning on Sunday we should be VFR at all sites, with
light W-NW sfc winds and sct-bkn stratocu, but nothing low enough
for any flight category changes.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 6:55 PM EDT---------------
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