CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 6:59 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...300
FXUS61 KCLE 312259
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
659 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to move southeast across the region
through the evening. We then await the arrival of a stronger
cold front on Sunday. This front moves quickly southeast as
high pressure moves over the area. The high then controls the
weather across the region through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
700 pm update...
The ongoing near term forecast through tomorrow morning appears
to be on track with no adjustments or changes needed at this
time.
Previous discussion...
7H jet has moved into PA with most of its additional lift. We
still have a cold front along the lakeshore to north of Findlay
which will sag southeastward through the evening. There may be a
few showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms along it. If any
thunderstorms materialize through sunset they would mainly be
near and south of a line from Meadville to Upper Sandusky. The
severe threat remains low with limited mixed layer cape (maybe
around 1000 J/kg across the southern CWA) and the best shear
already into PA and NY.
Cloud cover will be slow to decrease overnight but most
locations should become partly cloudy. Lows are expected to
range from the upper 50's to lower 60's. However a few mid 60's
are anticipated near the lakeshore.
The main surge of cooler and drier air arrives on Sunday as
a large area of high pressure descends on the region. there may
be just enough low level moisture lifted off the lake to
generate a few showers along and just ahead of the cold front
through mid afternoon Sunday, then clear the southern CWA by
late evening. It looks like any thunder on Sunday will be
isolated coverage at best and may not occur at all. There should
be a bit more sunshine on Sunday with highs in the mid 70's to
mid 80's.
The cold front should be south of the CWA by SUnday night with
high pressure taking control of the region. Drier air and
clearing skies will allow for a cool night. Lows should range
from the upper 40's inland to the upper 50's along the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong high pressure will build southeast out of Canada on Monday
and slowly move east across the region through the short term.
This will make for a dry forecast to start the week. 850mb
temperatures will be in the 4-7 C range and Monday will be the
coolest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s in PA to low
and mid 70s in Ohio. Heights aloft begin to rebound on Tuesday
as the trough axis starts to shifts east with temperatures
rebounding into the 70s on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast will start off with above normal temperatures
and dry conditions with an upper level ridge overhead. Highs on
Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the 80s except 70s in
NW PA. The next trough moving through the northern stream will
approach the area later Thursday. Moisture will return from the
southwest Thursday night into Friday and low chances of
precipitation are in the forecast ahead of the cold front.
There are some differences with respect to the evolution of the
trough over the weekend but should see temperatures trend back
below normal heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected this evening through tomorrow
evening with no aviation weather concerns. Skies will be mostly
clear to partly cloudy with some passing high and mid level
clouds staying mainly above 10,000 feet. A weak and small area
of high pressure will push in tonight with light winds from the
west around 5 to 7 knots tonight. Another cold front will move
through the area between 16z and 21z from north to south. Winds
will become northwesterly to northerly behind this front during
the afternoon and evening Sunday. Winds 12 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots are expected Sunday afternoon. There could
be a few isolated light rain showers along the frontal passage
but not expecting any impacts at any of our TAF sites.
Outlook...VFR expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
West to northwest winds on Lake Erie today will back to
southwesterly ahead of another cold front that will cross Lake Erie
tomorrow. Southwest winds will increase to 10-20 knots then veer to
the north behind the frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories and a
High Swim Risk have been issued for areas east of the Islands behind
the front as waves build to 3 to 6 feet. We could also see some
waterspouts with this colder airmass.
Strong high pressure will build in behind this system by Monday with
conditions improving on Lake Erie. Conditions may remain a little
choppy on Monday with north winds of 10-15 knots on the Central
Basin. Winds will tend to be 15 knots or less through the mid-week
period.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday
morning for OHZ009>011.
Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday afternoon through late
Sunday night for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday afternoon through late
Sunday night for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
LEZ144>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...KEC
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 6:59 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...---------------
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