IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 2:34 AM EDT034
FXUS63 KIND 300634
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
234 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Index values near 100 today.
- Some thunderstorms will be around this afternoon into Saturday.
Isolated strong to perhaps low end severe storms are possible
this afternoon and evening.
- Cooler weather with dewpoints near 50 expected Sunday through much
of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Early This Morning...
Quiet conditions will continue early this morning. Some patchy mid
cloud will linger, and some cirrus from storms well to the northwest
could move in. Patchy ground fog is possible, especially for areas
that saw rain on Thursday.
Today...
An upper level ridge will still have influence across central
Indiana for much of the day. This will keep hot temperatures around,
with highs in the lower and middle 90s continuing across the area.
Some mixing will occur this afternoon, which looks to keep dewpoints
in check. In turn, this will keep heat indices mainly in the 90s,
with some areas reaching around 100 degrees.
Even with the mixing, instability will still be around this
afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop in this instability. Coverage will be lower due to the
main forcing, an approaching cold front, remaining northwest of the
area. Storms could produce some gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.
The potential for convection does add some uncertainty to the high
temperatures/heat indices forecast. Thus, plan on just going with a
Special Weather Statement highlighting the continued hot conditions.
Tonight...
An upper trough will begin to work toward the area tonight, and a
surface cold front will move in from the northwest. The best forcing
will remain north of the area, closer to an upper jet. However, the
front should have enough forcing and moisture to work with for some
low end likely category PoPs in the northwest this evening.
Instability will weaken some during the night as the cold front
moves southeast away from upper support. Thus, will only go slight
chance to chance category PoPs elsewhere tonight.
A strong storm remains possible this evening before instability
weakens.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s as the humid
airmass remains in place for now.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Saturday Through Monday.
During the daytime hours on Saturday the aforementioned surface
front will continue to push southeastward with showers and a few
thunderstorms continuing across the southern counties through much
of the day. There is good model agreement that the front will stall
at least as far south as the Ohio River if not further south by
Saturday night which will bring an end to precipitation chances by
the early overnight hours.
A secondary frontal passage is then expected Sunday afternoon with
the only impacts being the arrival of much drier air as dewpoints
fall from the mid 60s to around 50 by Monday morning. Pleasant
conditions are then expected for Labor Day with temperatures in the
upper 70s with the dry air remaining in place.
Tuesday Through Thursday.
The pattern will remain quiet with broad ridging in place through
the middle of the week. As the surface high gradually shifts
eastward towards Wednesday, temperatures will begin to gradually
warm back up but expect that highs should remain well below where
things have been over the last week. Precipitation chances look
minimal until towards the weekend when the next system is expected
to push through.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Impacts:
- Isolated to scattered convection in the afternoon into the evening
Discussion:
Quiet conditions will continue overnight. Cannot rule out some
ground fog developing by sunrise, but confidence is not high enough
to include.
Cumulus will pop up during the daylight hours followed by some
convection. Coverage will be low during the afternoon but may
increase during the evening. Will use VC and/or PROB30 to cover
this. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will persist through 06Z
Saturday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 2:34 AM EDT---------------
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