LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 6:37 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...548
FXUS63 KLMK 301037
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
637 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Last day of near record heat today with highs in the upper 90s
and heat indices in the 100-105 range.
* Scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon and
evening.
* Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Saturday. A
cold front late in the weekend will usher in cooler and drier
air heading into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Quiet night will continue with calm to light winds and mostly clear
skies. Some thin, patchy fog may develop in areas that received some
rain yesterday and over southern Indiana, where dew points are a
little higher.
Persistent upper ridging will continue to move off to the east as
troughing digs into the region from the northwest. For this
afternoon, the departing ridging will again be the main driver of
conditions over the region. Temperatures will again be near record
in the upper 90s. Low-mid level clouds will develop over the region
by the afternoon, and will lead to isolated-scattered showers and
storms area wide. Similar to yesterday, there is very little shear
and storms will likely move very slowly. Stronger storms will be
able to take advantage of 1000-1200 J/kg of DCAPE and dry low-levels
causing steep lapse rates. Due to these conditions, the Microburst
parameter is elevated. Gusty to damaging winds are possible with
stronger storms. Showers and storms will dissipate with sunset. Due
to these clouds and PoPs, there is some uncertainty with
temperatures. Some areas that remain mostly clear and dry will see
upper 90s and flirting with 100, where areas that see a shower
earlier in the afternoon will likely remain in the mid-upper 90s.
Dew points will be a bit higher than previous days, however, heat
indices will remain around 100-105. For this reason, the SPS for
heat has been continued.
The aforementioned troughing and the associated cold front will
approach the region in the overnight hours. Skies will increase in
coverage from west to east. Ahead of the front, showers and storms
will enter the region in the early morning hours. Due to additional
cloud coverage and southwesterly flow, temperatures will only drop
into the low-mid 70s in rural areas and mid-upper 70s in urban
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Saturday morning, a weak cold front will likely stretch SW to NE
just north of the Ohio River. A weak upper level shortwave trough
also approaches from the northwest before moving overhead Saturday
night. Plenty of moisture will pool along the boundary, with PW
values near 2 inches. The weak front and plume of deep moisture will
very slowly sink south over central KY before stalling. This front
and the weak shortwave trough aloft will interact with a modestly
unstable airmass. Sfc-based CAPE > 1000 J/kg looks quite possible (>
50-60% chance during peak heating), but the deeper moisture and
cloud cover will limit sfc heating and lapse rates to some degree.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms should blossom in coverage
diurnally, and a few briefly stronger storms will be possible. Deep-
layer shear will remain very weak, with stronger mid-level
westerlies remaining well to our north. Localized heavy rainfall and
gusty winds would be the main concerns with any stronger storm.
Organized severe weather is not expected. Afternoon temperatures
will likely top out in the mid/upper 80s for most.
Shower chances will linger Saturday night while slowly sinking
southeast with time. We'll begin to dry out from the northwest on
Sunday. At least scattered showers and storms will remain possible
near and south of the WK/BG Parkways, where the deeper moisture will
reside. Highs in the mid 80s will be common.
A much stronger wave of low pressure diving southeast across Ontario
and the Great Lakes will push a stronger cold front through the
region late Sunday, and this will finally shove the stalled washed
out boundary and moisture south of the TN border. We'll dry out
completely by Sunday night with cool, dry advection via northerly
winds. Temperatures should drop into the lower 60s in most places by
the ride to work/school Monday morning.
Monday will be pleasant with strong high pressure building east over
the Great Lakes. Plenty of sun, fairly low humidity, and afternoon
highs in the low to mid 80s. Tuesday looks a touch cooler and we may
have a few more clouds around during the daytime. Morning lows are
expected to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Mainly dry weather
continues. Scattered rain chances return for the middle of the week
as moisture drifts back into the region from the south on the
backside of the departing high.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
VFR conditions will continue today with southwesterly winds 5-8kts
and SCT low-mid level Cu development. In the afternoon, isolated to
scattered showers and storms are possible starting around 19-20Z.
This evening, showers and storms will dissipate. In the overnight
hours, a cold front will approach from the northwest bringing
showers and storms along the boundary.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
================== Near-Record Heat This Week ==================
Friday 8/30/2024
Max T Fcst/Record (Year)
Louisville: 99/98 (1953)
Bowling Green: 97/99 (1993)
Lexington: 97/97 (1953)
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRM
CLIMATE...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 6:37 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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