MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 6:35 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...022
FXUS64 KMOB 221135
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
VFR condition persist for much of the area through the TAF cycle.
Scattered showers and storms will develop generally east of I-65,
especially across northwest Florida, this afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings/visibilities are briefly possible near storms today
and may impact the PNS and JKA terminals. Winds turn easterly
throughout the day and likely become gusty along the coastline in
the pre-dawn hours on Friday. 07/mb
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
Pleasant conditions persist this morning with temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s inland while hovering in the mid 70s along the
coastline. The showers that developed overnight across south-central
Alabama have since dissipated with nothing else notable on radar
this morning.
A generally northerly to northwesterly flow aloft persists this
morning as a shortwave pivots into the Southeast as it rounds the
eastern side of the ridge centered over the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, the local area remains on the southern periphery of a
surface high over the Midwest as a front remains draped across much
of the Gulf this morning. The front should get dragged northward
toward our coastline as we approach this afternoon. The combination
of increasing moisture as winds turn more easterly throughout the
day, the afternoon sea breeze, and the weak front lifting into the
area (in addition to the lingering shortwave trough aloft) should
act to enhance afternoon convection. The best chance for showers and
storms will be east of I-65 this afternoon, especially across
northwest Florida as the sea breeze pushes inland. Activity may
linger along the coast until midnight or so.
The flow aloft turns northeasterly on Friday as the ridge aloft
expands further east and the aforementioned shortwave dampens out
somewhat. The surface high builds into the Northeast, which allows
us to keep the easterly to east-northeasterly winds at the surface.
Rain chances won't be as high on Friday as the front washes out
across our coastal waters. We expect the bulk of the activity to
develop along the sea breeze and be confined to the southernmost
counties on Friday afternoon.
Beach Note: The risk of rip currents remains LOW through tonight. We
expect an increase to MODERATE along the coastal Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches Friday through Monday. Expect a bump in
surf heights to 2-3 feet Friday through Saturday. 07/mb
SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
A modest upper low located over the northeastern Gulf and
adjacent coastal areas slowly progresses westward and into Texas
through Monday. A large upper ridge spanning the central CONUS
meanwhile shifts slowly eastward and expands into the eastern
states, including the forecast region. The upper ridge then
becomes oriented generally over the southeastern states through
midweek, and weakens a bit. A surface ridge over the eastern
states gradually becomes oriented mainly over the southeastern
states through Monday, then slowly shifts into the northern Gulf
through Wednesday. This pattern promotes a mainly easterly surface
flow over the forecast area (with a sea breeze circulation
developing near the coast each afternoon) which finally becomes
southeasterly on Wednesday. Deep layer moisture tends to be
relatively limited over interior areas through Tuesday compared to
closer to the coast before an overall improvement is noted on
Wednesday. Have continued with slight chance to chance pops for
the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday with dry
conditions further inland, then Monday through Wednesday will have
slightly better coverage with dry conditions generally confined
to the northernmost portion of the area. Highs on Saturday range
from around 90 to the lower 90s, then a gradual warming trend
follows through Tuesday (and for Wednesday as well) by which time
highs will be mostly in the mid 90s. Lows Saturday night range
from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the coast then
trend a bit warmer by Tuesday night to range from the lower 70s
inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected for Saturday through Monday. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
Winds may briefly approach exercise caution levels for the offshore
zones on Friday. No significant impacts expected other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 93 71 91 70 91 72 93 74 / 40 20 20 10 30 20 40 20
Pensacola 91 73 90 74 91 75 92 76 / 60 30 30 10 40 30 50 20
Destin 89 74 89 73 91 76 92 77 / 60 40 30 20 40 30 40 30
Evergreen 92 67 90 65 91 69 93 70 / 30 10 0 0 10 0 10 10
Waynesboro 94 68 91 65 92 68 95 69 / 10 10 0 0 10 0 10 0
Camden 90 67 89 66 89 69 92 70 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 10 0
Crestview 91 69 90 68 91 71 94 72 / 50 20 20 10 30 20 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 6:35 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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