Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2028 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch probability: 40%]313
ACUS11 KWNS 291721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291720
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-291915-
Mesoscale Discussion 2028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Areas affected...central Pennsylvania into western and central
Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291720Z - 291915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop from central Pennsylvania
southwestward along the Blue Ridge, with locally strong to damaging
gusts possible into surrounding areas to the east later today.
DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass is in place today south
and west of the New England surface ridge, and despite slow drying
from the east. Visible imagery clearly indicates a very moist air
mass with expansive cumulus fields over much of PA and southwestward
along the Blue Ridge. GPS PWAT sensors show values of 1.75-2.00"
from eastern VA/DelMarVa northwestward into central PA.
Continued heating will lead to accelerated development over the
higher terrain of eastern WV and western VA over the next few hours,
with additional activity expected over much of central PA where weak
convergence exists. Shear will remain weak over most of the area,
with propagating clusters of storms expected to move east/southeast
into the remainder of central and northern VA and parts of MD.
Locally damaging gusts will be possible given the favorable timing
of the development with peak heating, and as outflow pushes into
regions with steep low-level lapse rates later this afternoon.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 37588049 37968048 38637995 39737939 40667907 41197904
41537871 41457786 41137764 40337735 39147726 38647739
38287763 37997810 37707854 37587908 37487957 37448026
37588049
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2028 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch probability: 40%]---------------
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