NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 20, 1:00 PM AST939
WTNT45 KNHC 200838
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024
Increasingly strong westerly vertical wind shear is affecting the
cyclone, displacing most of the remaining deep convection to the
east of the low-level center. The system's cloud pattern is
already taking on a less tropical-looking appearance, making
intensity estimates via the Dvorak technique somewhat problematic.
However, a couple of ship reports of winds of 58 and 51 kt to the
east of the center indicate that Ernesto is still near hurricane
strength. Thus, the advisory intensity is set at 65 kt.
The hurricane has been accelerating northeastward and the initial
motion estimate is 050/31 kt. Ernesto is embedded within a strong
deep-layer flow between a large trough over the northeastern U.S.
and a ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. In a day or so,
an even faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast is
likely as the cyclone comes more under the influence of a large
deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The official
track forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, and follows
the multi-model consensus solution.
Continued weakening is likely as Ernesto moves over cold water and
remains under the influence of strong shear. Based on current
trends and simulated satellite imagery from the global models, the
system's deep convection should be disrupted to the point that
Ernesto will have become a post-tropical cyclone in about 12 hours.
In 24 hours, the guidance shows a frontal appearance indicating
extratropical transition. In 36 hours or so, Ernesto is predicted
to open up into a trough over the northeastern Atlantic.
Key Messages:
1. The effects of swells generated by Ernesto on the coasts of
Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada should diminish
during the next day or so. Until then, beach goers should be aware
that there still could be a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents and should stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 47.3N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 20, 1:00 PM AST---------------
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